Author：Quantum trader
Traders grew confident on Friday that U.S. military personnel will physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran after an American fighter jet was reportedly shot down.
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, users penciled in a 90% chance that the U.S. will put boots on the ground before the end of this month. That marked a sharp increase compared to a 60% chance the day before.
The U.S. began conducting search and rescue operations after what appeared to be an F-15 aircraft was shot down over Iran, per CNN. Citing unnamed sources, the outlet reported that a pilot had been rescued while the status of a second crew member remained unclear.
The U.S.-Israel war with Iran began 35 days ago, and putting American boots on the ground would represent a major escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has put significant strain on the global economy and caused the worst oil supply disruption in decades.
Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall became the latest lawmaker to express concerns about the human costs associated with American troops entering Iran. So far, the U.S. has confirmed that 15 U.S. soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
“As far as boots on the ground, I sure hope not,” Marshall said, per The Topeka Capital-Journal, noting that his son is currently serving in the military. “I'm hoping that this war comes to a very quick end with minimum casualties for Americans.”
Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that Operation Epic Fury is nearing an end, with “core strategic objectives [that] are nearing completion.”
Trump has claimed that regime change in Iran has already happened, but Myriad traders see things differently. They foresaw a 75% chance on Friday that Iran’s current ruling regime would remain in place by October, which is around 180 days from now.
Following the assasination of Iran’s senior leaders, a hard-line government has solidified, per The Washington Post. That group offers little hope of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, the outlet reported, citing regional and Western officials.
In a Truth Social post on Friday, the president asserted that “with a little more time” the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could be easily reopened. He raised the prospect of physically taking the oil and making “a fortune.”
On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures rose 0.47% to $112.07 per barrel, approaching their highest level in four years, according to Trading Economics. On Friday, Myriad traders penciled in an 83% chance that they would rise to $120 before falling to $55.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, is also becoming more costly. Although Brent crude futures for June delivery changed hands around $109 on Thursday, the commodity’s spot price has flared to its highest level since 2008 at $141, per CNBC, which cited S&P Global data.
