Author：Encryption Tracker
As XRP struggles to regain momentum, fresh on-chain data shows that most holders are now sitting on significant losses.
The asset is trading around $1.31, down 2.14% on the day. This extends a broader decline that has seen it fall by more than 60% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66.
Recent insights from Santiment reveal that the average XRP wallet active over the past year is down roughly 41% on its holdings. This has pushed the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio to its lowest level since the FTX collapse, a period widely associated with extreme market stress and forced capitulation.
Key Points
Deep Losses for XRP Holders
The MVRV metric measures whether traders are in profit or loss, and current levels suggest that XRP investors are deep in negative territory. According to Santiment’s analysis, this goes beyond a simple price drop; it reflects actual realized losses among market participants.
Historically, such deeply negative returns point to what traders describe as a “blood in the streets” phase, when selling pressure begins to run out. Glassnode noted that in zero-sum markets like crypto, this environment tends to reduce downside risk, as a large portion of weaker hands have already exited their positions.
Glassnode Data Confirms Persistent Selling Pressure
Supporting this trend, data from Glassnode shows that more than half of XRP’s circulating supply is currently underwater.
Investors who bought above $2 over the past year have been consistently realizing losses. Specifically, daily realized losses have ranged between $20 million and $110 million since November 2025.
According to Glassnode, only 43.4% of XRP supply remains in profit, marking the lowest level since July 2024. This reflects sustained selling pressure, as holders continue to exit positions at a loss, contributing to XRP’s inability to stage a strong recovery.
Opportunity Zone in Play
Meanwhile, the combination of falling MVRV and declining supply in profit suggests a market reset. While short-term sentiment remains weak, these conditions have historically aligned with late-stage corrections, where long-term investors begin to accumulate.
Notably, Santiment data confirms XRP is now in an “opportunity zone,” which typically occurs when the MVRV ratio falls to around -30%. With the one-year MVRV at -41%, history suggests a potential 63% upside opportunity in the coming months.
Specifically, Santiment noted that the last time XRP’s MVRV ratio reached -41% was in December 2022, which preceded a 63% gain over 4.5 months. If history repeats, today’s XRP dip buyers could become significantly profitable by August. However, this remains uncertain.
Ultimately, XRP’s price remains under pressure, but the data points to a potentially promising setup.
As losses mount and weaker participants exit, the market may be quietly forming a more stable base that could eventually support a recovery when broader conditions improve.
