Author：Odaily 星球日报
Original article by Odaily (Planet Daily)@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
Behind the soaring trading volume in the prediction market, its ecosystem is also expanding rapidly.
Yesterday, an event was launched by two former Kalshi employees.Venture capital firm 5c(c) Capital announces its latest fundraising planThe firm plans to raise $35 million for investments in prediction market-related startups. Notably, it has already secured support from figures such as Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, as well as investors including representatives from a16z, Ribbit Capital, and Multicoin Capital.
At the same time, this institution is not only the first venture capital firm focused on investments in the prediction market industry, but also the same entity that has received simultaneous investment from two prediction market giants, Kalshi and Polymarket, which can be described as "unprecedented in the industry." Considering previous news such as Kalshi launching a prediction market alliance, planning a prediction market conference, Polymarket opening up market-making incentives for LPs, and the proliferation of various prediction market data platforms in the market,Prediction markets are gradually separating from the native crypto market and becoming an independent emerging industry ecosystem.
When an industry's trading volume grows dozens of times in just one year, and when a platform's monthly trading volume is comparable to the entire industry's trading volume just a few months ago, prediction markets are aggressively invading the heartland of traditional betting platforms.
Polymarket CEO invests in former Kalshi employee: a common choice of the two giants in the prediction market.
It is understood that the name of 5c(c) Capital comes from the provisions on prediction markets in the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act.
andThe two founders are veterans of Kalshi.—Adhi Rajaprabhakaran was the No.2 trader at Kalshi Trading, Kalshi’s associated market-making division, and the creator of the well-known prediction market podcast “50 Cent Dollars”; Noah Zingler-Sternig served as Kalshi’s COO and led the integration of Kalshi with Robinhood Markets Inc.
In addition, the fundThe plan is to invest in approximately 20 companies over the next two years.The company will focus on market makers, index design, and other predictive market infrastructure; its first round of fundraising will be completed within the next month.
A stellar team of investors: spanning traditional venture capital, crypto venture capital, prediction markets, and traditional sports betting platforms.
Aside from confirmed investors like Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (who did not give a direct response), 5c(c) Capital's other investors can be described as a "dream team"—including seasoned venture capitalists like Marc Andreessen of A16z (who invested through the Moneta Luna fund), industry veterans like Ribbit Capital founder Micky Malka and former Multicoin Capital managing partner Kyle Samani, and even investment managers from the hedge fund Millennium with over $70 billion in assets under management and the founder of the prediction market platform PredictIt, among other industry insiders and outsiders.
If the above list of investors reflects primarily the interests of venture capital firms, then the actions of the following two investors can be described as driven by "industry demand," similar to those of Polymarket and Kalshi. It is understood that the names of Jeremy Levine, CEO of the fantasy sports platform Underdog, and Jacob Fortinsky, CEO of the sports prediction platform Novig, are also prominently featured on the list.
It's clear that while the industry is developing rapidly, prediction market platforms and even traditional sports betting platforms are trying every means to solidify their foundation for development.
Ambitions for new funds predicting market growth: Future industry trading volume could reach $10 trillion.
It's worth noting that the two founders of 5c(c) Capital mentioned two key pieces of information in this investment document:
Firstly, the two explicitly stated, "We hope to leverage our self-built (product platform) to..."Create more second-, third-, and even fourth-level effects"From their words, it's clear that what they're aiming for isn't just primary investment in building prediction market platforms, but also capital investment, risk management, equity transactions, and even liquidity attraction and inflows at other levels in various niche sectors generated by prediction market platforms."
Secondly, regarding the future development of the industry, the document states, "Currently, the prediction market seems to be limited to the sports sector, but this is only one part of the industry."The industry's transaction volume could reach $10 trillion in the future."
Putting aside other factors, Kalshi's recent platform operation data might provide some evidence:As of March 22Kalshi's monthly nominal trading volume has exceeded $9 billion. At this rate, Kalshi's trading volume in March will exceed $12.7 billion, a 21.5% increase month-over-month. For comparison, Kalshi's annual nominal trading volume for 2025 is estimated at approximately $23.8 billion, meaning that in just one month (March alone), Kalshi's trading volume will reach approximately 53.4% of last year's total trading volume. Furthermore, last October, the overall market trading volume was predicted to be around $10 billion; now, Kalshi alone has surpassed that figure.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily had predicted in several articles that the prediction market would become another trillion-dollar industry independent of the cryptocurrency market, and now it seems that this prediction is gradually becoming a reality.
Prediction markets are breaking away from the crypto market to form an independent ecosystem: funds, industry alliances, data services, APIs, etc., form a closed loop.
With AI becoming a major driving force in the global economic system, prediction markets have emerged as another rare and rapidly growing sector, and their closed-loop ecosystem is rapidly improving.
Aside from the industry fund that raised $35 million mentioned above, the market prediction industry is gradually filling in its own underlying infrastructure, industry organizations, and application platforms.
In December of last year, Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company, a prediction market platform founded by former employees such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Although the specific amount of the acquisition was not disclosed, the company had previously completed a $15 million seed round of financing and was one of the rising challengers in the industry.
During the same period, five well-known institutions—Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog—[were involved].Joint DeclarationThe Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) was established.Recommended readingKalshi partners with Coinbase, Robinhood, and others, aiming to end the "casino theory.".
At the end of last year, Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi...A call to action was issuedThe inaugural Prediction Market Conference is planned for March 2026. Researchers, economists, policymakers, and traders will gather to discuss core issues surrounding prediction markets and knowledge aggregation.
In February of this year, Polymarket officially announced its second official acquisition.Acquires prediction market API startup DomeThe latter, a Y Combinator incubator project in the fall of 2025, provides a unified prediction market API, helping developers build applications, trading bots, and data dashboards that can simultaneously connect to multiple platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. It previously received $500,000 in investment from Y Combinator and completed a $4.7 million seed round. Its first official acquisition was the acquisition of the licensed US derivatives exchange QCEX, which enabled its successful return to the US market.
As industry transaction volume continues to grow, data analysis platforms targeting prediction market platforms have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, including:Parity,Predictefy,KalshiData.
Furthermore, there are countless on-chain trading tools and AI agent trading tools available for Polymarket, such as...Insiders.bot、Hubble aiAnd Alchemy's launchAgentCard.
It's no exaggeration to say that the entire market, from upstream to downstream, is currently brimming with investment and entrepreneurial opportunities. We will continue to explore these opportunities in the future.Crypto Bear Market Startup GuideThe discussion will gradually unfold in the series of articles.
The trend is set; let's wait for the flowers to bloom.
Previously, Kalshi held the top spot in market capitalization among prediction market platforms with a valuation of $22 billion, far surpassing many traditional sports betting platforms such as FanDuel (aka Flutter, $19 billion), DraftKings ($12.75 billion), and bet365 ($12 billion).
In addition, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig had previously stated that...Predicting the market can become a "truth machine".,Regulatory rules are being developed and relevant personnel are being recruited.Therefore, prediction markets are no longer a niche sector within the crypto market, but have become...A major benchmark emerging industry in the golden age of the US financial market.
althoughThere are reportsUS lawmakers are set to introduce a bipartisan bill to ban prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi from making sports predictions, but this is precisely what...Prediction markets are moving from the margins to the mainstream.Another example.
after all,More than 36% of American voters are users of prediction market platforms.The facts of the investigation cannot be ignored, and the ever-increasing trading volume data from prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket do not lie.
Recommended reading
Why prediction markets are really not gambling platforms
The battle to predict the future of the market: to the left is the casino, to the right is the news.
Still not enough? Prediction market giants set their sights on the huge payment and AI markets.
