Author：On chain believers
The top equity strategist at Barclays believes the S&P 500 is offering a golden opportunity to long-term investors, predicting that the SPX will surge to new all-time highs before the year expires.
In a new CNBC interview, Venu Krishna, managing director and head of US equity strategy at Barclays, says the S&P 500 is trading below a 20x price-to-earnings ratio, allowing investors to accumulate shares at an “attractive entry point.”
According to Krishna, the bank believes that the conflict in the Middle East will not act as a long-term headwind for the market.
“So I think, broadly speaking, our view is that in the history of geopolitical risks over the last 10-15 years, most of it has been generally contained geographically, and it’s normalized relatively soon. So I think you can argue that the market has been somewhat pampered to follow that view. And already, the Middle East crisis is broader in terms of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, the list goes on. But I think the view is that there will be a resolution. And that’s our base case. And that’s why we have approached it from a scenario analysis standpoint.”
Krishna predicts that the S&P 500 will soar to 7,650 by the end of 2026, as he believes the US can absorb the impact of higher oil prices as long as oil stays between $85 and $100.
“At the core of it, I think the view is that the US economy is a lot more immune to this crisis compared to the rest of the world. Asia is the most exposed. So is Europe to a great extent. But the US as a net energy exporter is in pretty good shape…
It will make some impact on consumption. And, in fact, in getting to our 7,650, we do assume that consumption declines. And we do assume that global economic growth takes a hit. But we also assume that the US economy is going to be relatively more resilient. And that’s how we get to those numbers.”
But if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Barclays sees the S&P 500 trading at 5,900.
At time of writing, the S&P 500 is trading at 6,575, indicating an upside potential of about 16% if the SPX hits Krishna’s year-end target.
