Driven by two positive factors, US non-farm payrolls in March significantly exceeded expectations. However, this growth largely reflects a short-term recovery, and future trends remain uncertain. See the chart for key data highlights!

US employment is expected to rebound from its February lows in March, with the healthcare and construction sectors contributing the main increases. However, as the Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices, business hiring confidence will be further impacted. JPMorgan warns that negative monthly non-farm payroll growth will become increasingly common in the future.

Forty institutions' forecasts are almost all clustered in the range of +50,000 to +75,000, with +60,000 being the most concentrated target, completely coinciding with Reuters' expectations. However, at the same time, a few institutions gave extreme predictions of negative values or over +100,000, revealing underlying disagreements within this seemingly consistent forecast.

U.S. nonfarm payroll data for March will be released tonight, with the market expecting a strong rebound in employment from the contraction in February, adding approximately 65,000 jobs. While the end of strikes and improved weather supported the data rebound, oil price volatility triggered by the Middle East conflict has increased inflation risks, further complicating the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Policymakers are caught in a dual balancing act between employment resilience and inflationary pressures.