Author：Wall Street CN

Daly, a 2027 voting member and a dovish San Francisco Fed president, said that if the U.S. non-farm payroll data shows zero or even negative growth, it does not necessarily indicate a weak labor market, given that the labor force has almost stopped growing.

In a blog post on Friday, Daly said that when labor force growth is close to zero, a month with zero or even negative net job growth may still be in line with expectations and is not necessarily a sign of weakness.

So what does this mean for monetary policy? First, job growth itself is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of the strength of the labor market.

Ratios and proportions such as the employment-to-population ratio, unemployment rate, turnover rate, or hiring rate can take into account changes in the size of the labor force, thus providing a clearer picture of the health of the labor market.

Communication will become more difficult. It will not be easy to make the outside world understand that an economy with zero job growth is consistent with full employment.

The abundant, vibrant labor market that has long dominated expectations in recent years may soon seem a distant prospect. Coupled with inflation data consistently exceeding target levels, policymakers must more clearly articulate how they will guide the economy toward our legal objectives.

On the same day, the US released better-than-expected non-farm payroll data. The US added 178,000 non-farm jobs in March, a more than one-year high, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. In response, the "New Fed Watch" stated that the better-than-expected job growth temporarily resolved the Fed's dilemma, and the market reduced its bets on interest rate cuts.