Author：Encryption Tracker
The ongoing XRP correction is part of a Wave 2 pattern identified two years back, with Wave 3 eyeing a double-digit target.
XRP has remained under pressure in 2026, falling 27.39% since the start of the year. This puts it on track for its weakest yearly performance since 2022. However, chart data shows the current downturn may be part of a normal macro Wave 2 correction, not a structural weakness.
Key Points
- XRP has declined 27.39% in 2026, putting it on track for its most bearish year since 2022.
- Chart data indicates that this downtrend, which started in July 2025, may be part of a normal Wave 2 correction.
- Key support levels sit at $1.21, with a deeper zone between $0.92 and $0.86, and a possible extreme at $0.62.
- Future projections suggest a Wave 3 move could reach between $7.58 and $24.75, with a possible extension toward $37.
Elliott Wave Structure from 2024 to 2025
This outlook came from market analyst CG, who believes the drop is not a sign of long-term weakness. The market commentator argues that the current trend follows a structure he first pointed out in September 2024, when XRP traded around $0.62.
At the time, he noted that the asset showed strong potential and predicted an Elliott Wave move that could eventually push the price toward greater heights during a larger Wave 3 phase.
Data from his chart shows XRP has since followed the structure. Specifically, the price moved through a five-wave pattern between July 2024 and July 2025, forming what the analyst calls macro Wave 1.
The move started with a sub-Wave 1, where XRP climbed to $0.65 in July 2024. What followed was Wave 2, which pulled the price back from $0.65 to $0.50 by November 2024. The strongest move came during Wave 3, when XRP surged from $0.50 to $3.4 by January 2025. Following that, Wave 4 led to a pullback to $1.61 by April 2025.
The final leg, Wave 5, pushed the price higher again, reaching a new all-time high of $3.6 in July 2025. This completed the full, smaller five-wave structure. According to the chart, this entire five-wave structure moved within the larger macro Wave 1.
XRP Now Seeing Wave 2 Correction
After reaching $3.6 in July 2025, XRP entered a macro Wave 2 correction, which has endured until now. Since the peak, the price has dropped by about 63%, bringing it down to around $1.33.
During this period, XRP has recorded six straight months of losses for the first time since 2014. It is also heading toward a seventh consecutive monthly loss for the first time in its entire history, down 0.27% this month, April 2026.
Despite the persistent downtrend, CG believes all of this remains part of a normal correction after the completed intermediate five-wave move.
XRP’s Downside Target
Meanwhile, to assess where the correction might end, CG called attention to several Fibonacci levels. Specifically, the first area that could mark the downward target is the Fib. 0.5 level at $1.21, which XRP already tested during the early February 2026 crash.
If this area fails to hold, XRP could drop further to the Fibonacci 0.618 to 0.65 range between $0.92 and $0.86, called the golden pocket. He believes this zone is a likely area for a deeper pullback and a possible long-term trendline retest, adding that he would consider buying in this range.
There is also a lower level at the Fibonacci 0.786 mark around $0.62. However, CG confirmed he was unsure if the price would drop that far again.
Meanwhile, he noted that if XRP closes a month below $0.86, he would consider his personal outlook invalid, although this would not necessarily cancel the broader Elliott Wave idea.
Macro Wave 3 Targets
Looking ahead, CG expects the next phase, Wave 3, to bring strong upward movement once the correction ends. If XRP turns upward from current levels, he sees a minimum target of $7.58, which could rise to $9 if the price first drops into the $0.92 to $0.86 range.
For a more bullish outcome, he projects a maximum target of $24.75 if the rebound starts from current levels. However, if the price first moves into the golden pocket before recovering, he believes it could climb as high as $37.
