XRP (XRP) supply profitability has fallen to a 21-month low while spot exchange-traded fund (ETFs) record their first negative month. 

Yet whale behavior suggests large holders are not rushing to exit. The divergence between retail and institutional weakness on one side and whale restraint on the other paints a conflicted picture for the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

XRP Underwater Holders and Fading Institutional Demand

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that just 43.4% of XRP’s circulating supply is in profit at $1.33. The metric has not been this low since July 2024. 

This suggested that more than 56% of circulating tokens are now held at a loss. The decline reflects the severity of XRP’s drawdown. Six consecutive red monthly candles have brought the token down over 60%.

“With more than half of the supply underwater, investors who accumulated above $2 over the past 12 months have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M – $110M/day since November 2025,” Glassnode added.

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Meanwhile, institutional demand through spot ETFs has weakened considerably. SoSoValue data shows that March 2026 became the first net outflow month since spot XRP ETFs launched in late 2025, with approximately $31.16 million leaving the products. Early April has already added $1.25 million in additional outflows.

Total assets under management across the US-listed spot XRP ETFs have fallen from a January peak of roughly $1.65 billion to approximately $950.58  million.

XRP Whales Hold Back as Market Reaches a Crossroads

Despite the bearish signals from profitability metrics and ETF flows, one data point stands out. According to analyst Arab Chain, whale inflows to Binance have dropped to their lowest level since early 2026.

“Daily whale inflows into Binance amounted to only about 12.60 million XRP, a relatively low level compared to previous periods that saw sharp increases exceeding hundreds of millions of XRP on some days. Meanwhile, the 30-day cumulative flow indicator fell to around 1.44 billion XRP, one of its lowest levels since the beginning of 2026,” the post read.

Declining exchange-bound whale transfers reduce the supply immediately available for sale. This can limit downside moves and create tighter conditions for a potential reversal. However, the pattern alone does not guarantee a reversal.

“Historically, large inflows to trading platforms have served as a potential indicator of increased selling pressure, while declining inflows suggest that investors are holding assets off exchanges — a relatively positive sign for price stability,” the analyst added.

The gap between fading ETF demand, mounting holder losses, and quiet whale activity points to a market caught between two forces.

Whether underwater holders and retreating institutions trigger further capitulation, or whether reduced whale selling pressure stabilizes the price, will likely determine XRP’s direction through April.

For now, the altcoin continues to move in lockstep with the broader market. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that XRP fell 1.89% in the past 24 hours. At press time, it traded at $1.32.

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