Author：TechFlow
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: A Textbook Example of an Intraday Reversal
Thursday saw one of the most dramatic days of 2026 unfold on Wall Street.
Before the market opened, everyone was digesting Trump's national televised address the previous night. "In the next two to three weeks, we're going to bomb them back to the Stone Age." This statement was like a depth charge, completely shattering the optimism painstakingly built up over the first three days of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged as much as 668 points, the S&P 500 fell by as much as 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite was hammered down by 2.2%.
The turning point came in the afternoon. Iranian state media suddenly released news that Tehran was cooperating with Oman to develop an agreement to "monitor" ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This seemingly insignificant diplomatic signal acted like a shot in the arm, triggering a massive sell-off by short sellers, and the three major indices staged a breathtaking V-shaped rebound in the last two hours.
At the close: The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 61 points (-0.13%) to 46,504.67, the S&P 500 barely managed a 0.11% gain to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18% to 21,879.18. The Russell 2000 gained 0.70%, supported by continued declines in Treasury yields.
From a nearly 700-point plunge to a mere 61-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average accomplished in six hours what others would take six days to achieve.
At the sector level, there was significant divergence. Energy stocks surged ahead, driven by soaring oil prices, with APA rising 4.3%, and ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, ExxonMobil, and Chevron all gaining around 3%. Real estate and utilities also strengthened as Treasury yields declined. However, consumer stocks were severely impacted, with war uncertainty and soaring oil prices doubly damaging consumer confidence. Cruise line stocks plummeted, and airline stocks came under pressure; these are sectors that suffer losses for every $10 increase in oil prices.
At the individual stock level, two extreme stories defined this day:
Tesla shares plunged 5.43% to $360.56.Tesla's stock price plummeted, marking its biggest single-day drop in 2026. The trigger was the first-quarter delivery figures—358,000 vehicles, not only below Wall Street's expectations of 365,000, but more worryingly, Tesla produced 50,000 more vehicles than it could sell. Production reached 408,000 vehicles, but deliveries were 358,000, resulting in an inventory shortfall of over 50,000. This isn't a production capacity issue; it's a demand issue. Tesla's stock has already fallen 20% this year, and Musk's "AI story" is increasingly unable to mask the weakness in its automotive business.
Globalstar surged 13% to $75.24Amazon is reportedly in talks to acquire Globalstar, a satellite communications company valued at approximately $9 billion, reaching an 18-year high. The Financial Times reports that Bezos intends to use Globalstar's spectrum assets and in-orbit satellites to accelerate Amazon Leo's direct competition with Musk's Starlink. The complexity lies in Apple's 20% stake in Globalstar, making this three-way deal far from finalized.
The VIX closed at 23.87, down 2.73%. Amid this geopolitical turmoil, the fear index actually declined, indicating that the market is becoming less sensitive. The 10-year US Treasury yield slightly decreased to 4.313%.
It's worth noting that despite Thursday's turbulent market, US stocks closed higher across the board this week. The S&P 500 rose 3.4%, the Nasdaq rose 4.4%, and the Dow Jones rose 3%. This marks the first weekly gain since the start of the Iraq War.
US stock markets were closed on Good Friday, but the March non-farm payrolls report was released as scheduled in the morning. Wall Street expects 57,000 new jobs, compared to a staggering -92,000 last month. This data will be released in a trading vacuum, leaving investors to grapple with the results until Monday's opening.
Oil price: $111, a four-year high
Thursday, the crude oil market will be the real focus.
WTI crude oil surged 11.41% to settle at $111.54 a barrel, a new high since June 2022. Brent crude rose 7.78% to $109.03 a barrel. WTI briefly touched $113 during the session.
Trump's "bomb back to the Stone Age" comment wasn't just rhetoric; it was a rocket booster for oil prices. Just the day before, WTI crude was below $100. It surged by over $11 in 24 hours—a volatility not seen since the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The core contradiction is very clear: Trump says "it will be over soon" while simultaneously saying "it will last another two or three weeks." The market only hears the latter part. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, through which nearly 20% of the world's oil shipments pass. The "monitoring agreement" between Iran and Oman has given the market a brief respite, but no one dares to gamble on when this lifeline will truly be reopened.
Analysts' consensus is shifting towards "higher for longer." Even if the war ends tomorrow, it will take weeks or even months for gasoline prices to fall, as the inflationary shock has already seeped into the capillaries of the economy. OPEC+ will meet on April 5 to discuss whether to ease production cuts, with some members advocating for increased production to stabilize prices above $100, while others are concerned about a potential supply glut after the war.
One figure worth remembering: U.S. crude oil production is projected to reach 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, a record high. The U.S. doesn't lack oil; what it lacks is the security of its global transportation routes.
Gold: Its safe-haven appeal has temporarily faded.
Gold has moved in a counterintuitive direction.
Despite soaring oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks, gold prices fell instead of rising. Gold retreated from the previous day's high of $4,796 per ounce, closing near $4,690 per ounce, a drop of approximately 2.2%.
The reasons are not complicated: the US dollar index strengthened after a surge of safe-haven funds, and a strong dollar suppressed gold prices, which are denominated in dollars. At the same time, soaring oil prices fueled expectations of interest rate hikes, and rising real interest rates put additional pressure on gold.
However, looking at a longer timeframe, gold remains near its historical highs. While the historical high of $5,595 reached in January 2026 has corrected by nearly $1,000, the structural bullish logic for gold—central bank purchases, geopolitical premiums, and de-dollarization—has not disappeared. The World Gold Council predicts that emerging market central banks will purchase approximately 850 tons of gold in 2026, and the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 15 consecutive months.
Gold may have lost out to the dollar in the short term, but in the long run, it remains the ultimate winner in this geopolitical game.
Cryptocurrency: Drift was ripped off for $286 million, causing fear levels to plummet.
On Thursday, the biggest news in the crypto market wasn't Bitcoin, but rather that Drift Protocol, the largest perpetual contract DEX in the Solana ecosystem, was hacked and embezzled $286 million.
According to Elliptic's analysis, the attack method closely resembles the modus operandi of several previous attacks by the North Korean hacking group (DPRK): the attackers created a wallet and conducted small test transfers eight days before the incident, then used the stolen administrator key to gain "God privileges," creating a fake collateral market and draining the liquidity pool in one fell swoop. The stolen funds were quickly converted to USDC through the Jupiter aggregator and then transferred to Ethereum via the CCTP cross-chain bridge. The entire process lasted for several hours during US trading hours without being intercepted.
This is the biggest DeFi security incident so far in 2026, and the second largest hack in the Solana ecosystem after the Wormhole ($326 million) in 2022. The DRIFT token plummeted 25%. Solana (SOL) fell to a five-week low of $78.30.
Back to market updates. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin fell approximately 2.5% to around $66,835, hitting a low of $65,890 during the session. Ethereum fell 4.28% to $2,046, with the ETH/BTC ratio dropping to a 15-month low of 0.0308.
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization shrank to $2.37 trillion, a loss of approximately 4% in 24 hours. Bitcoin's market share rose to 56.1%, with funds concentrating on Bitcoin amid panic – a classic "flight to quality" pattern.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to the 8-12 range (extreme fear), remaining below 25 for 46 consecutive days in the extreme panic zone, marking the longest period of fear since the FTX crash in 2022.
However, historical data offers a sobering reassurance: since the index's inception in 2018, every time the extreme fear reading dipped below 15, the median 90-day return for Bitcoin was +38.4%. Of course, history is not a guarantee. During the 2022 Terra/LUNA crash, the 90-day return following extreme fear was only 4%.
A noteworthy signal: On April 2nd, Japanese listed company Metaplanet purchased 5,075 BTC for $405 million, bringing its total holdings to 40,177 BTC, making it the world's third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder (after Strategy and Marathon Digital). When the fear index is at 12, someone is buying the dip.
Today's summary: A week dominated by oil prices.
On April 3, the Iraq War entered its sixth week, with Trump refusing to provide a clear timetable for withdrawal, and crude oil becoming the pricing anchor for all assets.
US stocks:The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 61 points (-0.13%), but still rose 3% for the week—the market has found a numb balance amid war fears.
Oil prices:WTI crude oil surged 11.41% to $111.54 per barrel, a four-year high. The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital choke point for the global economy.
gold:Gold prices fell back to around $4,690 per ounce, as a strong dollar temporarily suppressed safe-haven demand.
Cryptocurrency:Bitcoin fell to $66,835, and the fear index plummeted. The Drift hack, which resulted in $286 million in losses, dealt another blow to confidence in the Solana ecosystem.
The market is now only concerned with one question: Will today's non-farm payroll data confirm the recession, or will it provide some breathing room?
Wall Street expects 57,000 new jobs to be added in March. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, Monday's opening could see a rebound, as this would prove the labor market hasn't been crushed by war and oil prices. However, if the data turns negative again, following February's -92,000, then "stagflation" will move from analysts' papers into traders' nightmares.
But at least this week, one thing is very clear: global capital is repricing everything around oil prices at $111. From Tesla sales to Drift's security breach, from gold's dollar predicament to Bitcoin's extreme fear, all the stories ultimately point to that narrow waterway of the Strait of Hormuz.
