JPMorgan M&A Banker on Why Cross-Border Deals Will Keep Churning
Bloomberg
4h ago
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Jay Hofmann says risk appetite is back
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Hi, it’s Ryan Gould in New York looking at what might be driving the uptick in cross-border dealmaking behind so many M&A headlines this year. Elsewhere, Gilead strikes a deal in Europe while H.I.G. gets a new CEO.

Today’s top stories

  • Gilead to buy biotech Tubulis in a deal worth up to $5 billion.
  • SpaceX’s IPO pitch centers on Musk’s ability to ‘sell the dream.’
  • Ackman has proposed a bid for Universal Music Group.
  • H.I.G. Capital has appointed Brian Schwartz as CEO.

Global gambits

Many of the biggest M&A deals we’ve been covering so far this year have something in common: one of the parties isn’t based in the US. At a time of big political and market uncertainty, I caught up with JPMorgan’s head of North American M&A, Jay Hofmann, about some of the dynamics driving this trend. Here are some highlights from our conversation.—Ryan Gould

We’ve seen a cluster of large cross-border consumer deals recently, including Unilever merging its food business with McCormick, Estée Lauder’s talks to combine with Puig and Pernod Ricard discussing coming together with Brown-Forman. What do these transactions tell you about the current M&A environment?

They are stellar examples of what we’re seeing right now. Notwithstanding the volatile backdrop, driven by geopolitical and macro knock-on effects, companies are still willing to make big cross-border bets. These are large, industry-reshaping transactions that in some cases might have been contemplated for years. The fact that boards are still willing to act in this environment shows there are still plenty of animal spirits out there.

How are boards thinking about timing big deals against that volatility?

People have grown more accustomed to operating with higher levels of uncertainty and volatility. They’re pushing ahead with industry-defining transactions that are happening under their own logic. There’s a cliche in M&A: when the time is right, you have to strike—and that’s the mindset now.

So does this period feel different?

Prior periods of economic upheaval have typically dampened cross-border dealmaking. But the last 18 months have been constructive—risk appetite has been back. What we saw around “Liberation Day” last year turned out to be more an episode than a structural shift.

How important is the US-Europe valuation gap in shaping cross-border deal structures right now?

There is a broader thesis around structuring deals so that the combined or surviving entity is listed in the US, taking advantage of the persistent multiple arbitrage between US and European markets. It’s not surprising to see deals that lean into that dynamic.

That valuation gap doesn’t explain everything, particularly in consumer. What’s behind the recent wave of transatlantic brand combinations?

On the flip side of that multiple arbitrage, US companies end up with more firepower. But that dynamic doesn’t fully explain what we’re seeing in consumer deals, where European companies are striking combinations with US peers, often involving iconic brands and sub-brands.

Do you think cross-border M&A could be the story of 2026 when all is said and done?

Cross-border activity has been an under-observed phenomenon in the current M&A cycle. There’s been tremendous focus on AI, financial sponsors, and DPI, but much less attention on cross-border activity. Cross-border volumes—and the sheer scale and visibility of these transactions—are likely to become much more prominent as we go through the year.

M&A focus

Gilead Sciences agreed to buy private German biotech Tubulis in a deal worth up to $5 billion as it looks to boost its portfolio in a hot new area of cancer drug development, report Naomi Kresge, Robert Langreth and Eyk Henning.Blackstone and industrial investor Tinicum have agreed to buy aerospace parts supplier Senior in a £1.4 billion deal, the latest in a series of takeovers of UK industrial groups.Billionaire activist Bill Ackman has proposed a bid for Universal Music Group — the world’s largest music company, which houses the likes of Taylor Swift, Drake and Sabrina Carpenter—to increase returns on one of his hedge fund’s biggest holdings.France’s Bureau Veritas is acquiring Irish quality control business Lotusworks in a deal representing an enterprise value of €375 million.Deal flow in Japan will likely keep up its brisk pace, thanks in part to regulatory policies that are fueling mergers and acquisitions as well as broader macroeconomic trends, according to Alvarez & Marsal’s Paul Aversano.

Commerzbank said recent talks with UniCredit failed to convince it of the merits of the Italian bank’s takeover offer, underlining the German lender’s determination to stay independent.

Wall Street banks are lending €750 million to finance the roughly €1.5 billion tie-up of Asian food producer Eat Happy Group and sushi supplier Hana Group’s European operations, reports Aaron Weinman.Mexico’s only two low-cost carriers are merging in a deal that would reshape the country’s airline space while raising fears that less competition will bring higher fares.

IPO watch

SpaceX’s bankers are poised to begin talks to determine whether Elon Musk’s vaunted vision will be enough to lure IPO investors when the numbers might not, Bailey Lipschultz reports. Anthony Hughes, meanwhile, looks at whether the rocket, satellite and AI company is really worth $2 trillion.Activist fund MAK Capital has urged the leadership of German biotech firm Evotec to list its US unit and speed up its cost cutting program after the shares have lost about 85% over the past five years.

Sam Altman is ignoring a secret weapon for the OpenAI IPO, writes Bloomberg Opinion columnist Parmy Olson.

Private equity pulse

Blackstone is investing €250 million in Bulgaria-based utility-scale solar and battery storage projects company Sunotec, reports Swetha Gopinath. The structured equity investment will come from funds managed by Blackstone Tactical Opportunities.

Who’s news

H.I.G. Capital has appointed Brian Schwartz as CEO, taking over from co-founder Sami Mnaymneh, who will become executive chairman, a role he will share with fellow co-founder Tony Tamer. Veena Ali-Khan and Liana Baker report that the firm also has promoted Doug Berman to co-president alongside Rick Rosen.

Simpson Thacher & Bartlett is adding three new partners to its sports dealmaking team, amid intensifying competition among law firms to capture a growing pipeline of sports transactions.

Marcos Kantt, a former investment banker-turned-fintech executive, is taking over as Banco Plata’s chief financial officer as the fast-growing digital bank prepares for an eventual IPO.

Barclays has rehired Nick Fall from Goldman Sachs to help lead its US leveraged finance capital markets business. He’ll be co-head of the business alongside Alex Ranson, who joined from UBS last year.

Best of the rest

  • Morgan Stanley plans private credit fund even as investors flee.
  • InterCement deal ‘once in a lifetime opportunity,’ Mindlin says.
  • ING has ended an agreement to sell its Russian business.
  • Boutique fitness company Xponential has initiated strategic review.

Got a tip or want to send in questions? Email dealsnews@bloomberg.net

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