The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its April non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Friday.

The market expects the US labor market to continue its pattern of "low hiring, low layoffs." Many Wall Street economists believe that...Despite the Iranian conflict driving up energy prices and the continued spread of AI applications, US employment is not expected to deteriorate significantly in the short term, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rates.

Based on consensus expectations, the market anticipates that US non-farm payrolls will increase by 62,000 in April, significantly lower than the 178,000 increase in March; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%; average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the 0.2% in March; and year-on-year growth is expected to reach 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous 3.5%.

Most institutions believe thatAlthough job growth has slowed, it still represents a "healthy expansion" for the current US economy.Economist David Payne points out that, against the backdrop of slowing population growth, the current monthly increase of approximately 60,000 to 80,000 jobs is sufficient to maintain labor market stability.

Since 2026, US employment data has fluctuated significantly. January saw 130,000 new jobs added, February lost 92,000, but rebounded to 178,000 in March.

The education and healthcare sectors continue to dominate job creation.

Multiple institutions predict thatNew job openings in April will continue to be highly concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors.

In March, the U.S. education and healthcare services sectors added 91,000 jobs, contributing almost all of the job growth. José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, stated...Current job growth in the United States is "actually very narrow".He said:

"Many industries have not actually expanded... The real drivers of growth are education and healthcare, so I expect these sectors to contribute the vast majority of new jobs."

Shruti Mishra, an economist at Bank of America, predicts that...Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 80,000 in April, primarily from the education and healthcare sectors.

She stated that AI penetration in these industries is relatively slow, while demographic changes continue to provide demand. She also believes that warmer weather could benefit the leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation, utilities, and construction industries, with the construction sector potentially also benefiting from increased demand for data centers.

However, Mishra also cautioned that,Uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Iran could drag down hiring in some sectors, including the leisure and hospitality industry, as well as the trade and transportation sectors.

Deutsche Bank predicts that U.S. nonfarm payrolls will increase by only 50,000 in April, believing that the strong March data was partly due to the recovery effect after the end of the healthcare strike and the Easter factor.

The pattern of "low hiring, low layoffs" remains unchanged.

Wall Street's current core assessment of the US labor market is...The job market has neither expanded significantly nor deteriorated on a large scale.

Josh Jamner, senior investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, said the U.S. labor market has been “decent, but not strong” over the past year and a half, but recent data suggests the situation may be slightly improving.

He pointed out that as of the week ending April 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was only 189,000, one of the lowest levels since 1969; the ratio of job openings to unemployed also remained at around 1:1.

Jamner believes thatThe most prominent feature of the current labor market is "low mobility".He said, "Both hiring and layoffs are costly and time-consuming processes, so companies tend to react passively rather than take proactive measures."

Regarding the market discussion about the "AI job doomsday theory," Jamner believes that it may be too early to fully assess the long-term impact of AI on employment in the financial services and technology industries.

Interactive Brokers' Torres described the current job market as "very stable." He said, "There's almost nothing to worry about in the labor market. Companies aren't under much pressure to lay off workers right now."

Wells Fargo economists also stated that the U.S. job market has maintained a state of "low layoffs and low hiring" for the past two years.With limited demand for new labor from businesses, labor supply has become a key variable determining the rate of employment growth.

The conflict in Iran and inflationary pressures have altered the Federal Reserve's expectations.

The importance of employment data now extends beyond economic growth itself; it is directly related to the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's next policy path.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, bond futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its June 17 meeting. This meeting will also be Kevin Warsh's first since succeeding Powell as chairman.

The conflict in Iran has pushed up energy prices, reigniting inflationary pressures in the United States. Markets have even begun to re-discuss the risk of interest rate hikes, although this expectation has now clearly cooled.

Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM, said,If April's employment data is significantly stronger than expected, it could reignite market bets on interest rate hikes.

However, Bank of America's Mishra believes thatEven with weak employment data, investors may not be willing to bet heavily on interest rate cuts again until the situation in the Iranian conflict becomes clearer.

She stated that if the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% or lower, the Federal Reserve will be able to continue to maintain interest rates without significant pressure, given the renewed risk of inflation.

The disagreement over the path of interest rates was already evident at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 29.

The Federal Reserve ultimately decided to hold rates steady, but four members voted against it, the most since 1992.Three opponents opposed including the word "dovish" in the statement, arguing that it implies a higher probability of future rate cuts than rate hikes.

Jamner stated, "In my view, this indicates that they are closely monitoring the inflation component of the dual mandate. The labor market has been solid, but not particularly strong."

ADP data prematurely released a stronger signal.

The ADP "mini-nonfarm payrolls" report released on Wednesday has provided some clues for Friday's official nonfarm payrolls data.

Data shows that private sector employment in the United States increased by 109,000 in April, the fastest growth rate since the beginning of 2025, significantly higher than the market expectation of 84,000 and also higher than the 61,000 in March.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said that hiring growth was most pronounced in small and large businesses, while mid-sized businesses saw some weakness. She stated, "Large businesses have more resources at their disposal, while small businesses are the most flexible, both of which are crucial in a complex workforce environment."

In terms of industries, the education and healthcare sectors continued to lead with 61,000 new jobs, while the business and professional services sector lost 8,000 jobs.

However, economist Raymond James cautioned that...The ADP data has shown significant divergence from official non-farm payroll data on several occasions in recent months, so it should not be over-interpreted.

Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, stated that against the backdrop of ongoing global conflicts, energy price shocks, and economic policy uncertainty,"A strong jobs report alone is not enough to indicate that the labor market has changed."