Market and Trading Summary
Is 613 the bottom? A summary of market and trading during this period, and expectations for the next stage.
1. Is 61300 the bottom?
Today's 61300 is the most "bottom-like" point in this decline since 74000. This price level conforms to numerous patterns:
① A reversal structure with a long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart.
② A surge in trading volume on the 4-hour chart (similar to previous bottoms in the 63-60 range).
③ A 10% order book divergence of $250 million, comparable to previous bottoms.
④ Funding rates have finally turned negative, indicating a capitulation by the bulls.
⑤ The daily RSI is severely oversold; comparable RSI levels are only seen in August 2023 (818) and March 2020 (314).
Based on these combined patterns, the probability of 61300 being the bottom is high.
At the same time, we realize that the accelerated decline from 74000 was primarily due to Michael Saylor's first sale of Bitcoin, which triggered sales by other US DAT and institutions, as well as continuous large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. These sell orders are difficult to capture using typical crypto market patterns and indicators.
Therefore, I am not entirely confident that 61300 is the bottom. Before 2025, these indicators would have made it easy to judge, but today the difficulty has increased significantly.
Nevertheless, even if June 13th wasn't the bottom, it's not far from it.
2. Market and Trading Summary During This Period
Above 73,000 (i.e., until 8 AM on June 1st), it was reasonable to consider this decline as a correction. The accelerated decline after 8 AM on June 1st showed signs of a driving force. My mistake in not recognizing this turning point earlier was in this market movement.
Although my judgment of the market in the latter half was incorrect, maintaining the logic of holding spot + futures contracts focusing on strong altcoins ultimately resulted in profits. This was mainly due to the fact that strong altcoins generally didn't follow the decline (NEAR, LIT, HYPE, INJ, WLD, etc.), and even rebounded quickly after each Bitcoin drop.
This is also a unique aspect of this market movement. I believe this was due to institutions selling BTC regardless of cost, rather than altcoins, causing BTC to experience a "single drop," rather than a general loss in the crypto market caused by macroeconomic negatives. In other words, the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market haven't deteriorated; only Bitcoin has been hammered.
This situation is rare, and it's uncertain whether it will occur more frequently in the future. Having more cryptocurrencies not following the overall market trend is actually beneficial for our trading.
It's regrettable that I missed out on some short-selling profits. I prefer and excel at going long, often thinking from a bullish perspective, which is also my limitation.
3. Market Expectations for the Next Stage
This decline will eventually reach its end; it's currently uncertain whether 61300 has formed a bottom. If 61300 doesn't form a bottom, the price may fall below 60,000, potentially bottoming out between 60,000 and 57,000.
Regardless of whether 61300 forms a bottom, I believe that after this decline ends, there will be a mechanical bounce, unlikely to exceed 74,000.
The overall expectation is a replication of June-August 2022, meaning Bitcoin will only experience a weak rebound, but altcoins may outperform BTC.
This expectation only takes effect after the bottom is reached. Before the bottom is reached, BTC may still drive altcoins downwards, and the decline in altcoins before bottoming out may be greater than that of Bitcoin.
The true "bottom" won't appear until October of this year, therefore the end of this decline is not yet the lowest point of this bear market.
Overall, the recent market conditions have indeed been painful, but we are gradually approaching the bottom. In the long term, we remain optimistic about crypto scams.
This article is sponsored by #BCGAME|@bcgame @bcgamecoin
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BITCOINLFG®
5h ago
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The shift from $HYPE to $LIT is usually not a sign of a "new uptrend."
This is the market telling you that speculators missed their best trading opportunity and are now panic-buying overvalued stocks.
The same applies to the stock market.
$GOOGL/$MSFT/$NVDA look heavy, while the broader market starts chasing $DELL, $INTC, $HPE, $SMCI, and $MRVL.
When mainstream stocks stop leading the market and overvalued stocks start surging, it usually means you're closer to a local top than a local bottom.
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TheCryptoBasic
9h ago
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⚡Five Latest Developments in the Crypto Market
▪️ Stripe, Mastercard, and Visa are set to launch a joint stablecoin platform; Coinbase may join.
▪️ Bankless co-founders converted their Ethereum holdings into VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, and LIT.
▪️ Following their $10 million Ethereum purchase, the seven siblings raised another $20 million in USDT to increase their Ethereum holdings.
▪️ Amid market weakness, Mt. Gox transferred $8.16 million worth of Bitcoin to Bitstamp.
▪️ A major HYPE holder withdrew over $53 million worth of HYPE from exchanges in a single day.
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Caleb Franzen
06-03 20:38
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My Bitcoin accumulation signal has officially lit up again.
I will explain this in detail in today's voice memo.
Please make sure you have been added to the receiving list.
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Fu Lu Shou UV DAO
06-03 18:37
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Looking at my watchlist, NEAR and ONDO are performing so well; I was bullish on them when I first started investing but didn't buy. LIT even surged 25% today, but I sold before I could hold on. This year has been the worst year I've ever been at trading cryptocurrencies.
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Steven
06-02 22:42
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The Wall Street Journal reported today on Hyperliquid:
"One Saturday in February, when hedge fund commodities trader Vala Zeinali's phone lit up with President Trump's announcement of airstrikes against Iran, she calmly opened Hyperliquid."
Hyperliquid.
Options coming soon?
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ZOHAN
06-02 10:44
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If you're feeling overwhelmed by the rapid pace of AI development and unsure where to begin, I suggest not rushing to chase every new model.
I recommend starting by looking at your own work.
List your most frequent daily and weekly tasks:
Which tasks are repetitive?
Which tasks are time-consuming?
Which tasks require constant research?
Which tasks require organization, comparison, or rewriting?
What tasks do you know are important but haven't had time for?
These are typically the areas where AI can most easily lend a hand.
Don't start thinking about AI agents, automated systems, or enterprise workflows; just start with small things.
For example:
🔹After meetings, ask AI to help you organize your to-do list.
🔹Before writing an email, ask AI to draft a version.
🔹When reading long documents, ask AI to identify key points and risks.
🔹When writing code, ask AI to help you interpret unfamiliar files.
🔹When creating presentations, ask AI to help you organize the structure.
🔹When doing sales, ask AI to help you handle customer objections.
In the near future, AI will gradually be integrated into the daily processes of more companies.
Writing code, researching data, organizing meetings, analyzing financial statements, handling customer service, production... PR, Research
If you're unsure how to keep up, don't panic. Pick a task you most often procrastinate on today and try letting AI complete it for you.
Following AI trends is progress; making your daily workload a little lighter is also a very practical improvement.
If you're feeling lost, feel free to leave a comment/DM below to discuss 😉
👍👍
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Hayden
05-31 13:06
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🚨 [Devastating Historic Air Raid Alert] Breaking! Donald Trump will deliver an emergency national proclamation at 4:30 PM ET today!
The global cross-asset settlement system is shut down tonight—listen carefully, unless a disruptive systemic disaster is unfolding behind the scenes, the president is unlikely to deliver a national address without warning this weekend!
The fuse has been lit at full speed; some kind of undisclosed super tsunami has been electrified. For global financial markets… this is absolutely an extremely ominous death knell (DOES NOT LOOK GOOD)…
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CryptoRank.io
05-29 18:54
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📊 Which Perp DEX has allocated the most tokens to its community?
Of the Perp DEX tokens launched in the past year, @Aster_DEX has allocated the majority to community rewards and airdrops, with over two-thirds of the total supply used for these purposes.
Tokens with the highest community reward allocation:
$ASTER — 67.8%
$BASED — 59.6%
$ROLL — 54.0%
$DIME — 46.6%
$EDGE — 35.0%
$LIT — 25.0%
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KK.aWSB
05-28 12:24
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New York, 1922.
Dust settled in an unnamed room at the St. Regis Hotel.
Tesla, 66, the hands that once illuminated an entire era with alternating current, now trembled slightly.
He invented alternating current, radios, and conducted early experiments with X-rays.
He tamed the night with electricity, but he could not tame human arrogance and prejudice.
He was broke. Commercial giants had taken his patents, and the world had forgotten him.
Every day, he would go to Madison Square Park.
He would feed the pigeons.
Not just feed them, but he would specifically choose a few, squat by the bench, and talk to them one by one.
Those whispers, which sounded absurd to outsiders, were his only outpouring to the world.
He loved a white female pigeon most.
She was so pure, with only two gray feathers stubbornly pointing outwards on her wings.
He wouldn't let anyone near her, as if she were the last sacred place in his ruined life, a place not to be trampled upon.
In the coldest part of winter, he endured hunger, yet he would cancel his meager dinner to buy the most expensive, plumpest corn and millet—grains that cost several times more than his own lunch.
The hotel manager, looking at this strange, impoverished old man, once asked him, puzzled:
"Mr. Tesla, why do you love that pigeon so much?"
Tesla stood in the dimly lit corridor, silent for a few seconds.
His gaze pierced through the dappled New York night, and he said softly:
"I love her, like a man loves a woman."
"She loves me too."
"I know she loves me too. As long as I have her, my life still has purpose."
One year, her leg and wing broke.
This great engineer who had designed the entire modern power grid, with tears in his eyes, used all his remaining intellect to spend $2,000—a huge sum enough to cover several months' rent—to personally build her a miniature skeletal frame.
He cared for her meticulously for months, until she took to the sky again.
He thought they could depend on each other until the end of their lives.
However, one late autumn night in 1922, the pigeon flew into Tesla's room again through a crack in the window.
This time, she didn't flutter about joyfully as usual.
She landed on the windowsill, her body as weak as a withered leaf about to fall.
Tesla was startled. Trembling, he went over and carefully took her into his arms.
At that moment, two bright beams of light suddenly shot from her eyes—as Tesla later wrote tremblingly in his diary.
It was a powerful, dazzling, radiant light.
"Those two beams of light," Tesla wrote, "were brighter than any light I could produce in my laboratory with the most powerful equipment."
The light faded. She grew cold in his arms.
That night, the scientific giant who had once illuminated the entire earth with electricity wrote a final letter to a friend:
"At that moment, I knew my life was over."
"All my research, all my ideas,"
"They all went with her. When that pigeon died, something in my life died with it."
He lived until 1943, another twenty-one years.
During those long twenty-one years, he became a ghost wandering in hotel rooms.
He never invented anything of significant importance again.
He began talking to the void about "death rays" and "cosmic energy," and people said the genius had gone completely mad.
One late night in January 1943, he died alone in that cold hotel room.
FBI agents and investigators sealed all his belongings.
But in his suit pocket, it is said that besides a stack of incomprehensible energy formulas, there was also a crumpled piece of paper.
On it, there was only a drawing of a pigeon with outstretched wings.
Those who understand cosmic energy may not understand human loneliness.
But what makes a genius a genius is that he could love a dove—as deeply as someone else could love a person.
He warmed human civilization with the electricity of his life, yet only wished to leave his final warmth to a white dove flying across the New York night sky.