Bitcoin has temporarily stabilized around $73,500, but continues to underperform most risk assets. Earlier news of easing tensions between the US and Iran boosted market sentiment, easing pressure on oil prices and improving global risk appetite. However, Bitcoin failed to rally in tandem with this, with the market focusing more on changes in buying activity within the crypto market itself.

ETF funds continue to flow out

Funding momentum in spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to weaken. Glassnode stated that current ETF subscriptions and spot demand are still insufficient to support a price rebound above the cost range of approximately $78,000. On Thursday, this type of ETF recorded net outflows for the ninth consecutive trading day, setting a new record for the longest outflow period.

This means that a significant source of new capital driving Bitcoin's rise over the past two years is slowing down. Weaker funding also makes it difficult for Bitcoin to mount a stronger rebound, even when external risk sentiment improves.

Long-term holders' supply hit a record high

CryptoQuant data shows that the number of Bitcoins held by long-term holders has risen to a record 15.8 million. This is generally considered a bullish signal, as more positions are held rather than traded.

However, the agency believes that this increase in data does not necessarily represent a strong increase in holdings, but is more likely to reflect a slowdown in market turnover. Since last December, the supply of short-term holders has decreased by approximately 2.2 million BTC, of which about 900,000 came from Coinbase reserves. This portion of Bitcoin, having remained unmoved for an extended period, crossed the 155-day threshold and was thus classified as long-term holders.

Price range remains under pressure

In other words, the record high supply from long-term holders is partly a statistical result of "inactivity" rather than a reflection of continuous new capital inflows. Glassnode's realized profit/loss ratio of 1.56 is lower than that commonly seen in stronger bull markets, indicating that upward momentum in the market remains limited.

Polymarket traders currently tend to believe that Bitcoin will close this month between $72,000 and $76,000. This reflects the market's short-term focus on range-bound trading rather than a rapid return to previous highs.