Crypto market maker Wintermute has confirmed that it has provided two-sided liquidity on major prediction market platforms. Sources told Decrypt that the platforms in question include Polymarket and Kalshi, enabling more direct interaction between the two platforms at the trading level.
Bilateral pricing covers two major platforms
In its blog post, Wintermute stated that the company is continuously providing two-sided quotes for event contracts on leading platforms. Two-sided liquidity refers to market makers simultaneously posting both bid and ask prices, helping traders enter and exit positions more smoothly and reducing the impact of large trades on prices.
According to sources, Windemute's quotes cover both Polymarket and Kalshi. This means the two platforms no longer operate independently; funds move dynamically between the two venues to maintain more stable trading depth and tighter bid-ask spreads.
Prediction markets are still in their early stages
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said the liquidity structure of prediction markets is still in its early stages, but demand is growing. He stated that if these markets are to become more reliable real-time probability references, they will need sustained bilateral liquidity support.
In his view, deeper liquidity can lead to narrower spreads, support larger-scale transactions, and improve the quality of information reflected in market prices. For prediction markets, this means that the probabilities displayed by the platform are not just sentiment signals, but also closer to tradable price discovery results.
Kalshi has closer ties to Polymarket.
This arrangement also highlights a clearer structural connection between Kalshi and Polymarket. Both companies are vying for prediction market users, but their business paths differ. Kalshi has repeatedly emphasized that its business is entirely based in the US market, while Polymarket's main trading venue is located offshore.
In this framework, market makers do not bet on the outcome of events themselves, but rather profit from the bid-ask spread by facilitating trades. If we use a casino analogy, market makers are more like card dealers than bettors.
US business expansion continues.
Wintermute stated that participating in prediction market trading helps to elevate these platforms from mere prediction tools into broader venues for event risk trading. The company believes that with improved liquidity, the probabilities displayed on Kalshi and Polymarket will become more valuable.
According to another report, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order on Friday allowing Kalshi to offer perpetual futures linked to Bitcoin prices in the United States. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy also stated last year that the company would make the U.S. one of its new key areas of focus.
