Foreign media reports that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes the current Bitcoin downtrend could extend into early 2027. His basis for this is CryptoQuant's on-chain PnL Index Signal. This indicator shows that after the market enters a concentrated profit-taking phase, the overall profit and loss level of investors tends to weaken for approximately 18 months.
Indicators suggest the downward cycle is not yet over.
Ju stated on X that this trend change began in October 2025, and the current movement is similar to the long-term downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Based on historical patterns, a temporary bottom may appear in early 2027.
He mentioned that a true reversal isn't just about a price rebound, but rather the simultaneous appearance of two signals on the price chart: a recovery in unrealized profits and a decline in realized profits. This signifies that selling pressure is beginning to weaken, and buyers are regaining control. Based on current data, this combination has not yet materialized.
Bitcoin is consolidating around $73,000.
The report noted that when Ju published his article, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $73,000, down about 30% from its 2025 high. During the same period, US Treasury yields remained high, putting pressure on risk assets overall and fueling market risk aversion.
CryptoQuant's on-chain data also shows that funds flowing into Bitcoin are still increasing, but the market capitalization is not expanding in tandem. According to Ju's framework, this divergence of "funds entering but prices stagnating or falling" is a typical characteristic of a bear market.
CoinGlass data shows that there are concentrated sell orders around $74,200 and $74,500, forming short-term resistance areas.
ETFs and off-exchange demand are the key areas to focus on going forward.
Ju believes that for a more sustained recovery, two demand-side variables deserve close attention: first, whether the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs will increase again, and second, whether the activity of institutional OTC trading desks can rebound.
The report points out that while ETFs have continued to see net inflows in recent months, the pace has significantly slowed compared to the peak in early 2025. Institutional off-exchange demand has also slowed, weakening the impact of new funds on prices.
The article also mentions that if the US Clarity Act proceeds, it may improve the sentiment of some institutions. However, Ju's PnL model does not rely on a policy timetable; its judgments are primarily based on the on-chain profit and loss cycle itself.
