Foreign media, citing CryptoQuant analysis, suggest that after 114 days of consolidation within a narrow range, Bitcoin may experience a directional fluctuation of 10% to 20% in the short term. The article argues that current price volatility has compressed to multi-month lows, while reduced open interest on exchanges amplifies the market's sensitivity to sudden news.
Volatility falls to low levels
The report noted that Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range since February 2026, remaining sideways for over 114 days. Analyst Maartunn believes that such prolonged consolidation is unlikely to last, and the market may see a more pronounced price move within the next one to two weeks.
According to them, Bitcoin's volatility index has dropped to around 0.90%, near a multi-month low. Continued compression of volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating greater breakout momentum.
The exchange's selling pressure has thinned.
The article states that another characteristic of the market at the end of May was the thin order book on spot exchanges. Trading volume on major spot platforms fell to a low level, while long-term holders continued to transfer Bitcoin to non-custodial wallets, resulting in a reduction in the circulating supply on exchanges.
In this environment of tight liquidity, the market may experience significant volatility even without a large influx of funds. The report cites examples such as the Federal Reserve's economic report and new corporate currency purchase announcements as potential triggers.
Key price levels are attracting attention.
The article suggests that if the price rises above $78,200, short-selling stop-loss orders may be triggered, and Bitcoin could further test the $81,500 to $88,000 range.
If prices break below the support level around $72,000, leveraged long positions could face a chain reaction of liquidations, and prices could quickly fall back to the $65,000 to $58,800 range. The report suggests that this first instance of strong, one-sided volatility may set the tone for market movements in the summer of 2026.
