Bitcoin briefly dipped to the $72,600 area in early trading on Monday before fluctuating around $72,700. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has fallen nearly 1.5%; over the past week, it has dropped about 6%, and is down about 10% from its May high of nearly $81,000. Market focus is now refocusing on whether the support around $72,000 holds.
ETF outflows continue to suppress buying.
The outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs is a significant source of pressure in this downturn. SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.42 billion in the past week, with cumulative outflows exceeding $2.4 billion in May.
Continuous redemptions mean that ETF issuers need to sell their corresponding Bitcoin holdings, which further weakens buying pressure in an already weak market. At the same time, some whales and long-term holders are also accused of taking profits after the earlier price surge, making the spot market more vulnerable to external shocks.
- Over the past week, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.42 billion.
- More than $2.4 billion flowed out in May.
- BTC has fallen about 10% from its May high.
Oil prices and the US-Iran situation weighed on risk appetite.
Besides funding factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are also weighing on market sentiment. The report mentions that military tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again, and the market is also watching whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be affected.
As a result, WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 4%, climbing back above $90 a barrel. Higher oil prices exacerbated market concerns about persistently high inflation and increased uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's near-term interest rate cuts. For highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, this typically translates to a weaker risk appetite.
US President Trump has again demanded that Iran halt its nuclear program and restore unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is currently awaiting clearer developments regarding a ceasefire and shipping arrangements.
The $72,000 area becomes the short-term focus.
From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the downtrend line formed since May, and is trading within a weak channel on the daily chart. Technical analysis cited in the report indicates that the $74,500 to $75,600 area remains a resistance zone that any rebound needs to overcome; if this level cannot be recovered, the downtrend is unlikely to reverse.
Derivatives data also shows that a significant number of leveraged positions are concentrated around the $72,000 to $72,500 range. CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap indicates that if this area is breached, a new round of forced liquidation of long positions could occur, amplifying short-term volatility.
Some analysts have noted that the $72,650 level is a key support level to watch; a break below this level could see the market turn its attention to the $68,000 area. A lower demand zone is considered to be between $54,300 and $51,000. However, some market observers believe that Bitcoin remains within a broader demand zone, and if it can subsequently climb back above $75,600, market sentiment could potentially recover.
Overall, two main factors influencing Bitcoin's price movement are relatively clear at this stage: first, when will spot ETF funds stabilize and recover; and second, whether the US-Iran situation and oil prices will continue to exert upward pressure on the macroeconomy. Until these two variables show significant improvement, the area around $72,000 will remain one of the most sensitive price zones in the market.
