Foreign media reports that after a decline in May, Bitcoin's performance in June has once again sparked market discussion. Analyst PlanB believes that the market has not yet seen sufficient panic clearing, and the price still has a high probability of continuing to decline, potentially returning to the vicinity of the February lows.
PlanB says bottoming signals are still insufficient.
PlanB stated that one key factor in determining whether the market has bottomed out is how much Bitcoin supply remains in a profit-making state. According to the data he cited, a relatively high proportion of holders are currently in a profitable position, which is inconsistent with previous cyclical bottoming phases.
In past major corrections, when the market truly approached its bottom, only a small percentage of holders still had unrealized profits, while most investors had already incurred losses, and market sentiment was more inclined towards a concentrated sell-off. Based on this, PlanB believes that Bitcoin has not yet completed its typical bottom formation, and the probability of the price continuing to fall is over 50%.
$60,000 and $53,000 form the observation range
The article mentions that PlanB focuses on two long-term indicators: the 200-week moving average at approximately $61,000 and the realized price at approximately $53,000.
The 200-week moving average has repeatedly acted as a crucial support level during past bear markets; the realized price reflects the average cost of the last Bitcoin transfer across the entire market. PlanB believes that if the price moves closer to these two ranges, it will be closer to a historically common cyclical bottom formation.
$70,000 is considered a key short-term level.
Another trader, Ted Pillow, views $70,000 as a key support level in the near term. He believes that if Bitcoin closes below this level on the daily chart, the current decline could accelerate further, bringing more selling pressure.
The article states that $70,000 has provided support multiple times during recent volatility, making it a key level to watch for short-term funds. A breach of this level could further weaken market confidence, and some short-term traders may reduce their positions.
The recovery of derivatives positions remains slow.
Foreign media also noted that the recovery of the Bitcoin derivatives market remains slow after the previous large-scale liquidation. On October 10, open interest in Bitcoin contracts on major exchanges contracted sharply, with approximately 71,000 BTC, worth about $11 billion, being liquidated.
Before that incident, the total open interest in Bitcoin was approximately 375,000 BTC; currently, it's around 351,000 BTC, still about 24,000 BTC short. The article argues that this indicates many traders remain cautious, and leveraged risk appetite has not fully returned to previous levels.
Weak activity in derivatives markets is also a key reason why some analysts continue to view downside risks. Although Bitcoin is currently holding above some key support levels, market volatility could continue to amplify if capital flows and sentiment do not recover in tandem.
