Foreign media, citing analysis from Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, suggest that Bitcoin's rebound in March and April may not be the start of a new upward trend, but rather a brief bounce within a four-year downward cycle. The article argues that while the market has attributed the recent pullback to the Middle East situation and changes in strategy positioning, these factors are more superficial explanations, and price movements are still primarily driven by cyclical structures.

After reaching its peak last year, the market entered a period of decline.

According to Cowen, the peak of this cycle occurred in October 2025, with the price reaching $126,200. Afterward, Bitcoin weakened continuously in early 2026, falling 10.1% in January and another 14.8% in February, before rebounding by approximately 12% in March and April combined.

However, he pointed out that this rebound did not lead to a trend reversal. Bitcoin has consistently failed to hold above the 200-day simple moving average, so it is more likely a counter-trend rally during a downtrend than a confirmation of a new upward move.

June's performance may not be as optimistic as the average.

The article mentions that optimists often cite Bitcoin's historical average June return of approximately 6.91% as evidence that the market may be stabilizing. However, Cowen argues that this average is significantly inflated by a few strong years and cannot directly represent the true performance during a cyclical adjustment phase.

He cited CryptoRank statistics, noting that June saw a surge of 85.3% in 2011 and a 27.1% increase in 2019. Excluding outliers from these bull market years, June typically concludes with a pullback during the correction phase after Bitcoin reaches its global peak.

Watch for support around $60,000.

Cowen believes that June in US midterm election years is typically a weak window for digital assets. Considering the current decline in trading volume and weakening fundamentals, he judges the probability of Bitcoin breaking below the February low of $60,000 is increasing.

According to its cyclical return model, after a weak summer, September may still be under pressure, and the final low of this four-year cycle is more likely to occur between October and November 2026. Based on this, the article argues that the market may need to undergo further clearing before that, after which conditions may be created for the next larger-scale rally.