Foreign media believe that recent market trends have not truly confirmed the arrival of the "altcoin season." Although some altcoins have shown improved performance, Bitcoin has still outperformed most large-cap assets, and there has been no widespread diffusion of funds.
Bitcoin dominance remains high
The article points out that Bitcoin has risen more than 6% so far in the second quarter of this year, while most leading cryptocurrencies have fallen during the same period. This is consistent with Bitcoin's dominance remaining at around 60%, indicating that the market's main focus remains on Bitcoin.
However, another metric, OTHERS/BTC, rose by more than 6% in the second quarter, with a single-month increase of 14.5% in May. This means that some funds have begun to flow into tokens other than Bitcoin, but the scope remains limited.
The counterfeit season index did not strengthen in tandem.
According to data from BlockchainCenter, the altcoin index actually fell by more than 10% at the end of May. The article argues that this indicates the altcoin market has not yet seen a widespread surge; currently, it seems more like a few coins are attracting investment rather than the entire sector strengthening in unison.
In other words, the rise in OT HERS/BTC reflects more of a selective rotation than the start of a full-fledged altcoin season. The fact that Bitcoin's dominance has not declined significantly reinforces this assessment.
Ethereum fund inflows remain weak.
The article argues that June may be a window to observe whether altcoins can extend their upward trend, partly because the market expects the regulatory environment to improve and risk appetite may continue to spill over.
However, the main problem remains with Ethereum. Although some strong tokens continue to rise, funds have not significantly spread to the broader altcoin market. Ethereum is currently nearly 60% lower than its previous cycle high, and its price performance and ecosystem fund inflows are not strong enough.
On-chain data also supports this assessment. DeFiLlama data shows that Ethereum's total locked value has fallen back to approximately $40 billion, close to the level of the first quarter of 2024; the supply of stablecoins on the network is also about $6 billion lower than the peak of $166 billion.
The article argues that a broader, synchronized rally in the altcoin market is unlikely until Ethereum and its DeFi ecosystem attract stronger capital inflows again. The current market appears to be driven more by concentrated capital chasing a few leading coins than by a comprehensive shift towards the altcoin sector.
