In a regulatory filing on June 1, Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 bitcoins, worth approximately $2.5 million, between May 26 and May 31. Following this disclosure, a related prediction market on Polymarket was embroiled in a settlement dispute.

Disclosure later than the deadline

The market has seen over $80 million in bets, and the question remains whether Strategy will sell its Bitcoin before May 31st. The core of the controversy isn't whether a transaction occurred, but when that information will be made public.

Polymarket initially intended to settle the result as "no." The platform believed that there was no publicly available evidence in the market to confirm that the sale of tokens had occurred before the deadline.

Users question the settlement method

This approach quickly drew user opposition. Some participants argued that settlement should be based on whether the event actually occurred within the specified timeframe, rather than on the disclosure date. According to subsequent Strategy documentation, the selling of tokens did indeed occur before May 31st.

Some users criticized the platform for relying too heavily on technical explanations and failing to reflect the actual outcome of the event. Despite the ongoing controversy, the marketplace page at one point still displayed a near 99.9% probability of a "no" result.

The final decision will be made by the UMA.

Since both proposed settlement results have been challenged, the final ruling will be made by UMA token holders. UMA is Polymarket's decentralized oracle system used for settling prediction markets.

According to platform rules, this review process may take up to two days. This means that the dispute surrounding the timing of the transaction and the disclosure of information will ultimately be resolved by the on-chain governance mechanism.