Foreign media reports suggest that Bitcoin's recent failure to follow the upward trend of US stocks may not be primarily due to selling related to Michael Saylor, but rather because market funds are shifting to other popular trading opportunities. CoinDesk, citing Charles Schwab analyst Jim Ferraioli, states that Bitcoin's current problem is not a lack of positive news, but rather...Momentum trading recedes.
Funds shift to AI and gold
The article states that over the past year, the cryptocurrency market has seen the approval of spot ETFs, attracting significant institutional inflows, and the US regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer. However, these developments have not led to the sustained upward trend that many investors had anticipated.
Ferraioli believes that market funds are flowing into other more promising areas, including gold, AI-related stocks, and potential large-scale tech IPOs. As AI becomes one of the strongest growth narratives in financial markets, companies related to data centers, computing power, and infrastructure are attracting more speculative capital.
The sale of Saylor was not the main reason.
Regarding the discussion sparked by Strategy's recent sale of 32 bitcoins, Ferraioli believes the market impact of the transaction itself has been amplified. While the market generally believed Saylor wouldn't sell coins, he judges this to be more of a narrative point attached to an existing weak trend.
The article also mentions that some ETF investors, after experiencing significant volatility over the past year, may be more inclined to exit near breakeven rather than continue adding to their positions. This behavior has also weakened new buying interest at current price levels.
Retail-driven growth coupled with seasonal weakness
Ferraioli argues that while institutional adoption is indeed progressing, the dominant forces in the Bitcoin market remain closer to retail investors and momentum traders than to traditional institutional funds that allocate assets based on long-term valuations. This also explains why regulatory benefits have failed to immediately translate into price increases.
The article mentions that the US market is still awaiting the advancement of digital asset legislation such as the Clarity Act. In the long term, such policy changes may help expand adoption, but in the short term, they may not be enough to reverse the current trend. Meanwhile, summer is historically a relatively weak period for Bitcoin, with trading activity typically declining.
The platform has expanded the destinations of funds.
The article also mentions that as crypto-native trading infrastructure expands, investors can now trade perpetual contracts linked to non-crypto assets such as private companies and commodities on some platforms. Platforms like Hyperliquid are providing traders with more options for deploying funds.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin faces an even wider range of competition. According to Ferraioli, the current market doesn't lack positive news about crypto; what it lacks is a reason for funds to continue chasing Bitcoin.
