Senior chart analyst Peter Brandt suggests that Bitcoin's decline may not be over after hitting its target of February lows. He believes prices could continue to fall, potentially leading to a more dramatic sell-off, and a tradable low may not appear until October.
Break below the lower edge of the ascending channel
The charts published by Brandt show that Bitcoin traded within an upward channel from late February to May. However, as the price broke below the lower edge of the channel, the original upward structure was broken, and market concerns about a short-term trend reversal have clearly intensified.
He stated on social media that Bitcoin has reached its initial downside target, but this does not mean the decline is over. In his assessment, it is still difficult to confirm a true bottom at this stage.
Touched the 200-week moving average
Following this decline, Bitcoin has touched its 200-week moving average. This is the first time it has returned to this long-term technical level since October 2023, and is therefore considered an important watch area by the market.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the current market is more like a large-scale "handover." He provided data showing that the average cost basis for Bitcoin investors is approximately $53,000. Historically, bear markets often complete their clearing only after prices fall below this target price.
- The 200-week moving average is a key long-term technical level.
- The average cost of holding the position is approximately $53,000.
- Brandt believes the tradable low may occur in October.
ETF buying failed to offset selling pressure.
Ki Young Ju also mentioned that he originally thought this cost range would be difficult to test again in this cycle due to the continued inflow of institutional funds. However, the latest data reflects that selling pressure in the market continues.
He pointed out that despite increasing ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin allocations, prices have returned to levels seen in early 2024, suggesting that early holders may have made large-scale spot allocations, offsetting the support from new buying.
On the other hand, Peter Schiff, a long-time bear on Bitcoin, also stated that Bitcoin's current price is below the previous macroeconomic high reached in April 2021. He used this to question the market's optimistic expectations for high growth in the coming years.
Overall, the market's focus has shifted from institutional buying to whether selling pressure has been fully released. If the price continues to fall below key long-term support, Bitcoin's volatility may further increase.
