Following Bitcoin's recent break below key support, market concerns have intensified regarding a potential further pullback. Foreign media, citing on-chain and transaction data, suggest that this decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation; increased spot selling, transfers to Mt. Gox-related addresses, and weakening valuation models are all contributing to suppressing market sentiment.
Binance spot selling pressure rises
The report noted that Binance's Cumulative Volume Difference (CVD) confirmation score rose to a near four-month high. This indicator continues to rise when prices are falling, typically indicating that selling pressure stems more from actual physical selling than from short-term volatility caused by thin liquidity.
Such declines, if driven by spot selling, are often more difficult to end in the short term unless new buying emerges. Based on this, the article argues that active selling forces still dominate the current order book.
Mt. Gox transfers raise concerns again
In addition to selling pressure from exchanges, activity in Mt. Gox-related wallets has once again triggered sensitive market sentiment. Reports indicate that wallets associated with Mt. Gox transferred 116.3 BTC to Bitstamp, valued at approximately $8.16 million according to the article.
While the size of this transaction is relatively small compared to Bitcoin's daily trading volume, any unusual activity in Mt. Gox-related addresses amplifies market concerns about subsequent sell-offs by creditors. Given Bitcoin's already weakening position, this type of news is more likely to exacerbate short-term panic.
On-chain models point to a lower support range.
The article also mentions that the next important support level given by the MVRV pricing range model has now shifted down to the $54,000 to $50,000 range. This model is often used to observe overvalued or undervalued areas in different cycles.
The report also points out that this doesn't mean Bitcoin will immediately fall to that range, but if the price fails to recover the previously breached resistance level, the downside risk remains significant. For the market, $54,000 has become a key level to watch.
Short-term holders are under increasing pressure.
On-chain data also shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the True Market Mean of approximately $77,800. The article states that this level has historically been considered an important reference point for distinguishing between strong and weak markets.
More notably, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below this level for the first time since the 2022 bear market, indicating that the confidence of newly entered funds is weakening. Meanwhile, realized losses have risen to nearly $1.35 billion per day, with long-term holders accounting for approximately $770 million in losses, suggesting that selling pressure is no longer solely from short-term funds.
If Bitcoin can quickly recover to the $70,000 to $72,000 range, market sentiment may have a chance to stabilize temporarily. However, if it fails to recover to this level, foreign media believe that market expectations for a deeper correction may continue to rise.
