Foreign media reports that Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that Bitcoin's current price is at a discount of approximately 28% compared to his model's valuation. The article states that the market is not merely reflecting short-term volatility, but also pricing in factors such as quantum computing risks, slow progress in Bitcoin Core development, and increased corporate leverage.
The discount has widened to below the baseline.
According to Edwards' data, the latest price of Bitcoin is approximately $62,099, a 15.6% drop from the previous period. In his model, the current price has fallen below the so-called "discount factor" baseline, which corresponds to a long-term valuation path towards $120,000.
According to him, this means a larger gap has emerged between market prices and the "true value" calculated by the model. The article calls this gap the "quantum discount," which is when investors actively lower valuations due to future technological risks.
Progress on quantum upgrades becomes the focus
Edwards believes the biggest pressure currently stems from the Bitcoin network's lack of a clear plan for post-quantum cryptography upgrades. He points out that if the current ECDSA signature standard is cracked after the improvement of quantum computing capabilities, the associated risks will increase significantly after 2027 and accumulate rapidly before 2030.
The article states that if a formal network upgrade roadmap is not seen within the next 12 months, the market may continue to factor this uncertainty into prices. Based on this assessment, Bitcoin will find it more difficult to reach new all-time highs in the short term.
Corporate leverage and the retreat of retail investors
Besides technical issues, Edwards also sees the leveraged purchase of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries as another concern. He specifically names Michael Saylor's corporate Bitcoin holding strategy, arguing that such high-leverage structures amplify market concerns about debt risk.
He also mentioned that retail investors' weariness with meme coin scams and project collapses is weakening new capital inflows. The article argues that this has deprived Bitcoin of the retail investor-driven momentum that was common in past rounds of price increases.
If the upgrade is implemented or triggers a reassessment
However, Edwards also believes that this discount may not be permanent. If the Bitcoin community announces the completed post-quantum signature code or a clear upgrade plan, the gap between the current price and the model valuation could narrow rapidly.
The article's core argument is that the market is currently suppressing Bitcoin's price primarily to price in unresolved technical and structural risks; once these key risks are mitigated, room for revaluation may open up.
