Foreign media reports that Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, believes that Bitcoin's recent pullback has brought the market into a set of historically common support levels. It briefly fell below $60,000 before rebounding above $61,000, and the price is once again approaching several long-term valuation indicators.
Key support level
Rafael noted that Bitcoin has fallen below the median break-even price for holders, the first time this has happened since December 2022. The market is currently approaching two closely watched levels: the median realized price of around $64,100 and the 200-week moving average of around $61,700.
$46,000 to $54,000 range
He believes the CVDD model deserves more attention. This indicator, currently near $46,200, has proven effective near ultimate lows in the past few cycles. Based on this framework, he gives a high-probability bottom range of $54,000 to $46,000.
A deeper pullback is still possible.
Rafael also mentioned that if the market continues to weaken, the $35,000 to $40,000 range remains a support level. However, this range has occurred relatively infrequently in Bitcoin trading history, making it less likely to occur.
Additional information:He also believes that if Bitcoin were to rise back to between $75,000 and $79,000, it would be more likely to signal the first significant repair of the market structure.
