Foreign media reports that Bitcoin fell 14.4% in the first five days of June, and spot ETFs saw a total outflow of $1.399 billion in the first three days of the month, indicating significant market pressure. The article argues that with the breach of key valuation levels, BTC is approaching a new important support zone.
The valuation band of $72,400 has been breached.
According to Ali Martinez on X, citing Glassnode data, Bitcoin has fallen below $72,400. This level corresponds to -0.5 standard deviations in the MVRV model, below the mean of $94,100, and was one of the previously important price ranges.
The article states that after losing this level, the next strong support levels in the market are mainly concentrated around $54,000 and $50,000. This assessment is also close to AMBCrypto's previously proposed target range of $51,000.
The combined pressure of ETF outflows and liquidation
The recent decline in Bitcoin has been accompanied by continuous outflows from spot ETFs, indicating that institutional funds are becoming more cautious in the short term. At the same time, the rapid price drop has also triggered large-scale liquidations, further amplifying market volatility.
The article mentions that the $60,000 support level, established based on the lows of February this year, is being tested. If this level is decisively broken, the market may experience a more pronounced and concentrated sell-off.
- In the first five days of June, BTC fell by a cumulative 14.4%.
- In the first three days of the month, spot ETFs saw outflows of $1.399 billion.
- The target price range is concentrated between $50,000 and $54,000.
The rainbow pattern has fallen below the lower edge again.
The article also mentions that the Bitcoin rainbow chart is essentially a long-term trend tool based on logarithmic regression, more suitable for observing historical ranges than for precise predictive models. In September 2022, Bitcoin fell below the lower edge of the rainbow chart and remained in that area for over a year before resuming its upward trend.
According to the article, BTC fell below the lower edge of the rainbow chart again in February 2026, indicating that current market sentiment is approaching an extremely pessimistic range. However, the article also points out that this model does not fully reflect the cyclical changes that occur after the market matures.
As Bitcoin's market capitalization has expanded, volatility has decreased significantly compared to earlier periods. The presence of spot ETFs, institutional holdings, and strategies like those of companies like Strategy that leverage debt to increase their BTC holdings also differentiate this cycle from earlier market conditions.
Overall, the article argues that rainbow charts can only provide a general range reference and cannot be used alone to determine the bottom. However, considering ETF fund flows, on-chain valuation levels, and liquidation pressures, the possibility of BTC falling to $51,000 in the later stages of 2026 still warrants attention.
