Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 this week, leading to speculation that retail investors might be selling crypto assets to participate in SpaceX's proposed IPO. However, on-chain data does not currently support this claim.
No abnormalities were observed in the flow of stablecoins.
Data reviewed by CryptoQuant shows that there were no unusually large withdrawals of USDC or USDT from exchanges during the pullback. The liquidity of these stablecoins remains within the range common since February of this year.
Typically, when investors are preparing to liquidate their crypto assets and transfer them to brokerage accounts, stablecoin flows tend to change significantly first. Therefore, this data does not show a clear indication of a "massive exodus of funds from the crypto market and a shift to subscribing to SpaceX."
Bitcoin and Ethereum saw large withdrawals instead.
Unlike stablecoins, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw significant outflows from exchanges last Friday. Data shows that approximately 66,470 Bitcoins and 2.49 million Ethereums were transferred out of exchanges that day, marking one of the largest single-day outflows this year.
These types of withdrawals typically do not exhibit the characteristics of panic selling. Before the market sells off, assets usually flow into exchanges first; while transfers out of exchanges are more commonly seen after purchase and subsequent transfer to private wallets for safekeeping.
Continuous outflows from ETFs are more likely a source of selling pressure.
The report noted that SpaceX's planned IPO has attracted significant attention from retail investors. Reuters stated that demand for the project has reached approximately $150 billion, roughly double the target offering size. According to the reported timeline, SpaceX is expected to price its offering on June 11th and begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX on June 12th.
However, on-chain data cannot cover all transaction scenarios. If a user sells crypto assets directly within their Robinhood or Coinbase account and leaves the USD balance on the platform, this change will not be reflected in the public blockchain data.
The selling pressure is now more clearly coming from funds. Public ETF fund flow data shows that as of June 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative outflow of over $4.3 billion. The Ethereum ETF had previously also experienced 17 consecutive trading days of outflows.
In ETF products, investor redemptions typically prompt the issuer to sell the underlying assets, making this outflow a more direct and easily identifiable source of selling pressure.
