Foreign media reports that after Bitcoin fell back to around $60,000, on-chain transaction activity did not cool down accordingly. AMBCrypto, citing analysts, stated that the number of Bitcoin transactions below the 30-day moving average is close to historical highs, suggesting that the market may be experiencing a large-scale shift in holdings.
The number of transactions is close to the previous high.
The article cites analyst Darkfost as saying that Bitcoin's 30-day moving average number of trades is approximately 640,000, close to the high of 660,000 trades reached during the September 2024 correction. According to his observation, high trade counts are typically more common during strong upward trends or when the market is nearing a temporary top.
This time, however, the increase in the number of transactions occurred simultaneously with the price decline. The article argues that this is more like a concentrated turnover than a rise driven by new buying. Short-term holders had already sold at a loss, and funds continued to flow out of Bitcoin, reflecting a still weak market risk appetite.
Miners' profit margins have shrunk significantly.
In addition to on-chain transaction data, miners are also facing increasing operational pressure. The article states that the cost of producing Bitcoin has been approximately $43,000 over the past month, while the spot price has fallen from over $80,000 to close to $60,000, causing miners' profit margins to drop from 98% to 47%.
Meanwhile, the average daily computing power declined by about 33% in three weeks. However, the 30-day moving average is still higher than the 60-day moving average, indicating that although the computing power has declined, there has been no confirmation of a longer-term weakening trend.
Inflows into exchanges rose to over 10,000 coins.
The amount of Bitcoin being transferred from miners to exchanges has also increased significantly. The article mentions that recent daily inflows have risen to 10,000 to 12,000 BTC, far exceeding what it considers a more normal range of 1,000 to 3,000 BTC. This is usually seen as a signal of potential increasing selling pressure.
Based on this, the article concludes that the current chain reaction of selling in the market may not yet be over, and a clear bottom has not yet formed. Given the extreme panic, if selling pressure continues, the price of Bitcoin could further decline to around $51,000.
