Bitcoin rebounded after a sharp drop last week, climbing back above $62,000 on Monday and briefly approaching $64,200. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at approximately $63,000, up 1.39% in the last 24 hours, but still down 14.06% over the past seven days.
The market is currently positioned between long-term support and the first resistance level for a potential rebound. Buying has temporarily slowed the decline, but the weekly weakness has not yet fully reversed. ETF fund flows, changes in futures positions, and geopolitical situations remain the main factors influencing prices going forward.
200-week moving average component boundary line
According to market analyst Crypto Rover, Bitcoin closed above its 200-week simple moving average on the weekly chart, which is around $62,800. Previously, BTC had dipped and broken below its February low, hitting a low of approximately $59,100.
At this stage, $62,800 is considered a short-term support/resistance level. If the price continues to hold above this level, the market may retest the $64,000 to $64,200 area; if it falls below this level again, the focus may return to $60,000 and the previous low of $59,100.
Technical indicators remain cautious.
From a short-term perspective, the 14-day RSI is 26.43, still below the oversold threshold of 30, indicating that previous selling pressure was relatively concentrated and there is room for a technical rebound in prices. However, such signals usually only indicate that the decline has been too rapid and are not sufficient to confirm that a bottom has been formed.
Meanwhile, the MACD remains in bearish territory. The MACD line is around -4019.58, below the signal line of -2951.83, and the histogram continues to be negative, indicating that selling momentum has not completely subsided. In other words, although prices have rebounded, the larger-scale downward pressure has not been significantly relieved.
Furthermore, market sentiment remains cautious. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 8, placing it in the "extreme fear" zone. Analyst Scott Melker believes that Bitcoin's weekly chart may be forming a bullish divergence, but this signal still needs further confirmation from this week's closing price.
The situation in the Middle East has increased the risk of volatility.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continue to impact the performance of risk assets. Previously, US President Trump's comments that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement eased market concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving a rebound in stocks and crypto assets from their lows.
However, the situation reversed again on June 8. Israel launched strikes against Iranian military targets and petrochemical facilities, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Israel. Following this news, market expectations for a de-escalation weakened, and Brent crude oil rose above $96 per barrel, a single-day increase of over 3%. The rise in oil prices also exacerbated inflationary and interest rate expectations.
Derivatives data is also worth noting. The report mentions that during the Bitcoin decline, open interest actually increased, indicating increased leverage in the market. This structure suggests that if BTC breaks through $64,200, it could trigger short covering; if it falls below $60,000 again, it could trigger a bull squeeze.
- The 200-week moving average is approximately $62,800.
- The 300-week moving average is approximately $55,000.
- The 400-week moving average is approximately $42,500.
The $55,000 level is also a key medium-term support area that some traders are watching. However, before that, the market needs to observe whether the $62,800, $60,000, and $59,100 levels can hold.
Overall, while Bitcoin has rebounded from its sharp drop, stabilizing above $62,800 remains crucial in the short term. If the rebound fails to extend further, the market may retest lower support levels; only a firm hold and break above $64,200 could open up further upside potential.
