By the closing phase of the first week of April, a clear divergence has emerged across financial markets. While oil prices are confidently breaking through psychological levels, cryptocurrencies are moving into a deep defensive stance.

The Easter weekend on U.S. markets is effectively preserving uncertainty across key logistical hubs, while the price of WCI crude oil is breaking above $113 per barrel. On the decentralized platform Hyperliquid, trading volume in perpetual oil contracts has already exceeded $101.6 million.

While traditional markets remain closed, digital assets continue to reflect market sentiment, which is largely pessimistic, and XRP has already lost more than 2%, falling below $1.30. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is showing a moderate decline of 0.3%, holding below the $67,000 level.

Will April 9 trigger crypto rebound?

The main pressure on risk assets comes from expectations surrounding the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which is set to be released this Thursday. The market is reasonably concerned that the new data will confirm inflation remaining above 3%.

If this forecast proves accurate, the Federal Reserve will have every reason to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer than investors had hoped, particularly in the crypto sector.

Under these conditions, defensive assets and energy commodities may continue to rise, while Bitcoin and XRP, as representatives of the higher-risk segment of financial markets, are likely to remain in a zone of elevated volatility.

However, it cannot be ignored that any data on April 9 that comes in no worse than forecasts could trigger a large-scale short squeeze and a return of Bitcoin to the upward track.