As March came to an end, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around the US$67,000 mark. On the one hand, whale addresses continued to accumulate funds and exchange balances dropped sharply, building a solid HODL defense line. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, and expectations of tightening by the Federal Reserve suppressed liquidity. The market may turn from bullish to bearish at any time. As of press time,Bitcoin’s latest price is $67,859.Regarding the price trend of Bitcoin in April, should it stick to the $67,000 defense line and start a new round of upward attack, or should it trigger a leverage stampede and enter a multi-kill, multi-plunge mode? This article will break down the key variables of this long-short game from the two dimensions of on-chain data and macro environment.
Bitcoin’s long-short battle: on-chain and macro battles
Before analyzing the price trend prediction of Bitcoin in April, let’s look at the core contradiction of the current Bitcoin market. In fact, it is just one sentence: the microstructure is very hard and the macro environment is very cold.
Let’s look at the micro side first. Although prices are falling, on-chain data tells us that the market is not really panicking. According to the latest statistics from CryptoQuant, in the past 30 days, large wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins have purchased a total of 270,000 Bitcoins—the largest single-month sweep since 2013. At the same time, exchanges’ Bitcoin reserves have also fallen to their lowest levels since 2018.
Looking at the macro side, the situation is completely opposite. Geopolitical conflicts have pushed oil prices above $100, the Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal, and expectations of tighter liquidity have made the entire risk asset market tense. As one of the risky assets, Bitcoin cannot escape the fate of being sold off.
On one side, the giant whale is collecting money, and on the other side, the macro is pumping water. This game will reach its climax in April.
Bitcoin’s Key Line of Defense: The $67,000 Line of Defense
The "watershed" in the decisive battle between long and short
The position of $67,000 is really not just an ordinary number.
The latest price of Bitcoin on March 31 was $67,859
It is the last "bottom line of dignity" for this bull market, and it is also the direct switch of the "more kills more" market. We call it the watershed in the decisive battle between long and short. From a technical structure perspective, the "bear flag" pattern that Bitcoin has shown since falling back from its high point makes this support level particularly critical. Gate News’ analysis points out that if it continues to fall below the $67,000 level, the price may further test the support range of $61,500 and $60,000. Once it falls, it may even extend to the $52,600 area.
Institutional positions and ETF flows
Let’s look at the corporate whales. We think this is a more alarming signal.
Data shows that the average position cost of the micro-strategy of the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holders is approximately US$66,385, and the current currency price is close to its breakeven point. Once the price continues to drop, this listed company will face unprecedented book losses, which may trigger accelerated selling by investors who follow its trends, creating a stampede-style "more kills more" situation.
Bitcoin ETF March Overview
At the same time, the reversal of ETF fund flows at the end of March - from net inflows to net outflows of nearly US$296 million - and the exchange whale ratio rising to a high of 0.79, both indicate that large holders are sending chips to the market and potential selling pressure is building.
When we make Bitcoin price trend predictions in April, we cannot avoid this line of defense of $67,000.
It's not a question of whether it can be defended, but - if it can't be defended, who will take over?
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast in April: Monthly Technical Analysis
Bitcoin monthly trend analysis
Judging from the March Bitcoin monthly data from Bijie.com, it shows the following characteristics:
| index | Current status | Signal interpretation | Impact on April |
|---|---|---|---|
| K line pattern | The physical negative line fell below MA10 | Short dominance | Bearish |
| MA5/MA10 | MA5(78327)<MA10(94645), large price difference | Mid-term weakness confirmed | Bearish |
| Volume | 47.967B, shrinking and falling | Selling pressure is exhausted, bottoming signal | Too much |
| MACD | A dead cross is formed, and the green column is enlarging | Short kinetic energy release period | Bearish |
The comprehensive analysis is as follows——
Bitcoin monthly trend technical analysis
The technical aspect shows a "long-short interweaving" pattern: the monthly moving average and MACD point to weakness, but the trading volume gives a bottoming signal of "shrinkage and decline". This indicates that the market is at the end of a decline but has not yet confirmed a reversal. The core task in April is not to reverse, but to "stop the decline and stabilize." The shrinking decline means that there is limited room for continued deep decline, but the monthly dead cross limits the height of the rebound. There is a high probability that April will fluctuate at a low level or rebound weakly.
Key points:
Upper resistance: $78,000-80,000 (near MA5)
Lower support: $62,000-65,000 (previous low area)
Core line of defense: $67,000 is still the dividing line between short-term long and short periods
Three possible Bitcoin price trends in April
| scene | Probability | price path |
|---|---|---|
| High probability | 50% | The range fluctuates between 67,000 and 75,000, and the bottom is reached due to shrinkage. |
| medium probability | 30% | After holding on to 67,000, it rebounded to around 78,000 (MA5 pressure level) |
| Small probability | 20% | Heavy volume fell below 67,000, testing 62,000 downwards |
In our view, the price trend of Bitcoin in April was technically characterized by “short dominance but exhausting selling pressure”. The monthly MA dead cross and MACD dead cross suppressed the rebound space, but the shrinking decline limited the possibility of continuing a deep decline. In April, there is a high probability that it will bottom out in the range of 67,000-78,000. The real trend opportunity may have to wait until the MACD green column is significantly shortened and the price returns to MA5. Holding the defense line of $67,000 is the key in the short term. If it fails, you need to be alert to the risk of testing $62,000 downward.
Conclusion: A direct confrontation between macro liquidity and on-chain resilience
Looking forward to the trend of Bitcoin in April, the key to the market's disruption lies not in technical indicators, but in whether macro liquidity can restore its "blood-forming" function. Although historical data shows that April is often a strong month for Bitcoin, 2026 has broken multiple seasonal patterns, making reference values that rely solely on historical cycles declining.
The final direction of Bitcoin's price trend in April depends on the attitude of international oil prices and the tone of the Federal Reserve. Looking back at the beginning of March, when news of the ceasefire came out, Bitcoin surged 16% in five days. Therefore, for investors, rather than focusing on short-term charts, it is better to pay close attention to the fluctuations in crude oil futures and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. Before the macro "stops the bleeding", the $67,000 defense line will withstand the most severe test this year. If it can hold, it means that the market has digested the worst news, and new funds are expected to push prices out of the quagmire; if the line of defense collapses, it means that in the wave of deleveraging, any support will become fragile, and the market will have to find a new balance lower.
The above content is about "Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast in April: Hold on to the $67,000 defense line, or start a multi-kill, multi-plunge mode?" 》analysis, please pay attention to Bijie.com for the latest information on the price trend of Bitcoin in April.
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