Macro oversold repair and four-hour counterextraction analysis: Will Ethereum still rise?

To maintain absolute sanity in this short-term rally that has a visual deception effect and is extremely easy to induce retail investors to chase the price impulsively, we must first completely peel off the minute-level fluctuation noise and face the true background of the underlying macro cycle of the asset. The current price of US$2,060.79 is by no means just a cold technical level. It is a reconnaissance bomb dropped by the main force in order to test the selling pressure above after a deep wash.

Opening the latest Coinglass data dashboard, the current quotation of ETH is fixed at $2060.79. Judging from historical performance, this rebound pales in comparison to the long-term bearish trend: it has recorded a decline of -30.33% in the past 90 days, and the yield in the past 180 days has been mired in a quagmire of -50.69%. This means that in the mid- to long-term dimension, short sellers still firmly control the macroeconomic pressure, and any current increase is just to repair the extreme oversold caused by last week's geopolitical crisis.

The current 4-hour trend has recorded a strong retracement of 3.12%. The price quickly increased in volume after falling back to $2,000, which marks the phased exhaustion of short-term short-term momentum. This technical resonance of extreme macro weakness and strong short-term repair has caused serious disagreements across the entire network on the proposition of whether Ethereum will continue to rise. The objective conclusion is extremely cold: in the context that the situation in the Middle East has not substantively cooled down and the specter of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is still looming, a simple contract rally that lacks continued support from spot buying is essentially a bull trap serving the main secondary distribution.

98.8 million liquidation engine reveals whether Ethereum will rise again

One of the core indicators for assessing whether the crypto market is sustainable is the efficiency of leverage clearing in the derivatives market and the brutality of unilateral massacres. Today's Ethereum liquidation data of nearly 100 million US dollars directly gives the physical engine explanation of the main force's "using short fuel to ignite".

In the past 24 hours, ETH has gone out of the monkey market trend of first declining and then rising. Data shows that the total 24-hour liquidation of contracts across the entire network was US$98.8 million, of which US$61.48 million was liquidated for long orders and US$28.94 million was liquidated for short orders. Although the total liquidation volume of long orders dominates, this is due to the "aftershocks" caused by the inertia of last week's decline.

The real killing game is hidden in the last 4 hours. In just 240 minutes, of the total micro liquidation of US$214,600 across the entire network, short positions were liquidated as high as US$185,900, while long orders were only US$28,800. This means that the core motivation of the main force's rise is not to reverse upwards, but to directionally blast the short leverage chasing the decline, forcing short positions to be closed and converted into pay orders, thereby artificially pushing up the price without spending the main force's spot funds. This false prosperity created by using the bodies of short sellers as fuel is the core key to answering the question of whether Ethereum will continue to rise: when the fuel of short sellers is exhausted, the market will completely lose its upward physical thrust.

Retail investors are 2.25 times overcrowded and will die, and the whale’s 1.12 defense answer will Ethereum still rise?

If the liquidation data is a sickle for the main force to harvest, the serious deviation of the long-short ratio data directly exposes the completely different strategic trump cards of the long and short sides in the current market when facing the so-called repair market. This is the most valuable objective radar to determine when this rebound will end.

The data panel extremely nakedly demonstrates the fatal path dependence and paranoia of retail investors in the face of oversold rebounds. Currently, on the Binance platform, the long-short ratio of ordinary retail accounts has soared to an extremely crowded state of 2.0931 in an extremely abnormal manner, and the long-short ratio of retail investors on the OKX platform is also as high as 2.25. Even the long-short ratio of large Binance investors, which represents high-net-worth large-capital retail investors, is as high as 2.3267 and is in a feverishly bullish state.

What do these three extremely large and crowded sets of bull data mean? This means that at the teetering mark of $2,060, the vast majority of retail investors and large investors on the entire network have completely lost their minds. They regard the main force's killing of shorts and luring bulls as the return of the bull market, and are buying with twice the number of short sellers with crazy leverage. However, the top Binance traders who truly control the market pricing power have a long-short position ratio of 1.1253, but compared with the long-short ratio of retail investors of 2.32, they appear extremely restrained and defensive. This extreme deviation of retail investors' fanaticism and cold-blooded defense of giant whales provides a very domineering answer to the follow-up trend of Ethereum: Will it continue to rise? There will definitely be another drop in the short term! As long as retail investors still maintain a crowded long position of 2.25 times, and whale positions do not appear to be overwhelmingly net long, it is absolutely impossible for the main force to pull up and rescue these bargain hunters. The next move on the market is most likely to use another violent attack to completely wipe out the leverage of these retail investors.

42.6 billion daily volume and futures deviation and practical geek risk control guide

Combining the above-mentioned underlying game data and liquidity performance, we see a market that is completely dominated by derivatives and is extremely false and prosperous. Ethereum’s 24-hour contract trading volume reached US$42.62 billion, while spot trading volume was only US$2.07 billion. The futures transaction ratio of more than 20 times is irrefutable evidence that the current price of US$2,060.79 is completely a distorted price caused by the short-selling operation of the main force in the contract market and the blind long-selling of retail investors. The open interest of contracts across the entire network is still as high as 29.22 billion US dollars, like a barrier lake hanging overhead.