News from Bijie.com: Bitcoin plunged 24.6% in Q1 of 2026, the worst quarterly performance since 2018. This data not only ended the market’s previous optimistic expectations for the halving market, but also forced investors to re-examine the underlying logic of this cycle. From the tightening of macro liquidity to structural changes in on-chain data, this deeper than expected correction is the inevitable result of the superposition of multiple pressures.As of press time, the latest price of Bitcoin was $67,087.We will deeply dismantle the core driving force behind "Bitcoin's 24.6% plunge in Q1 2026" and analyze the market characteristics that are completely different from previous cycles.
The latest price of Bitcoin on March 30 was $67,087
Geographical conflict: the trigger for panic
What we can be sure of is that the Iran war became the most direct impact variable in the first quarter. On February 28, the United States and Israel jointly launched "Operation Epic Fury" to carry out a military strike against Iran. Bitcoin plummeted from US$65,500 that day to a minimum of US$63,216. Since traditional financial markets are closed on weekends, Bitcoin has become the only tradable liquid asset in the world and is forced to assume the real-time pricing function of geopolitical risks.
| time | event | Bitcoin lows |
|---|---|---|
| February 28 | first attack | Approximately $63,200 |
| March 2 | Iran strikes back | Approximately $66,000 |
| March 7 | Conflict of the week | Approximately $68,000 |
| March 12 | Oil tanker attacked | Approximately $69,400 |
From the key price fluctuations of Bitcoin since the US-Iran conflict, we have noticed that every time the conflict escalates and triggers a sell-off, its price lows are gradually higher. This round of Bitcoin’s dismal performance of falling 24.6% in Q1 of 2026, coupled with the sudden impact of geopolitical conflicts, has effectively cleaned up market leverage. We believe that judging from historical patterns, this kind of deep correction, if accompanied by a marginal improvement in the macro environment, often provides a relatively favorable window period for mid- to long-term layout.
Macro suppression: Expectations of interest rate cuts completely reversed
In our view, the Federal Reserve's policy shift is the underlying driver of this round of 24.6% decline in Q1 2026. Geopolitical conflicts have pushed oil prices above $100, raising inflation expectations. Data from The Kobeissi Letter shows that market expectations for the first interest rate cut have been postponed to December 2027, and the probability of even raising interest rates before March 2027 has risen to 51%. The expectation that this high interest rate environment will last longer has greatly suppressed the room for valuation repair of risk assets such as Bitcoin. At the same time, U.S. bond yields climbed close to 4.6%, and funds accelerated their withdrawal from risky assets. Our analysis shows that the expectation that this high interest rate environment will last longer is greatly suppressing the room for valuation restoration of risk assets such as Bitcoin. Even if companies are still increasing their holdings, macro headwinds will be difficult to reverse in the short term.
Internal blood loss: Three major selling pressures take turns to impact
Miners become the main force in Bitcoin selling
According to the CoinShares Q1 2026 report, the weighted average cash cost of producing one Bitcoin has climbed to approximately $79,995, while market prices have been below this level for a long time. The reversal in mining economics has forced miners to liquidate their positions on a large scale. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 Bitcoins worth approximately $1.1 billion between March 4 and 25 to fund a strategic transition into an AI and high-performance computing business.
Bitcoin current miner outflow
Let’s look at another set of data. As of the end of March, the total number of Bitcoin reserves of public miners has decreased by more than 15,000 from the peak, and the computing power of the entire network has dropped from 1,160 EH/s to 920 EH/s. This means that about 20% of miners have shut down or quit. We believe that this "miner clearing" caused by cost inversion played an important role in Bitcoin's dismal performance of 24.6% in Q1 of 2026 - when producers began to sell regardless of cost, the market's pricing anchor naturally loosened.
Business demand is in dire straits
Strategy's holdings climbed to 762,000 at the end of the first quarter, accounting for 76% of the company's total holdings. But except for Strategy, Bitcoin purchases by all other companies plummeted 99% from their peak, falling from 66,000 in August last year to just 1,000. The number of companies buying Bitcoin also dropped sharply from 54 to 13.
Table: Amount of Bitcoin purchased by institutions from March 1st to 30th
| Purchaser | Purchase quantity | key details | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | About 45,000 pieces | Continue to increase holdings and maintain the status of the largest corporate currency holder | Public financial reports |
| Bitfinex whale | 79,193 pieces | Continuous buying on Bitfinex recently | On-chain data monitoring |
| US Spot Bitcoin ETF | About 37,000 pieces | Continuous net inflows since mid-March | ETF official data |
| Metaplanet | To be disclosed | Japanese listed companies follow Strategy strategy | company announcement |
| Big Four DAT Companies | not disclosed | Collaborate with AI computing power and data business | - |
From the above table, we analyze that this highly concentrated pattern means that the corporate demand for Bitcoin is highly dependent on the buying rhythm of a single institution, and there is structural vulnerability.
The complete departure of retail investors aggravates the depletion of liquidity
CryptoQuant data shows that retail investor demand has dropped to -10% on a monthly average, the lowest level since January 2025. In addition, as of late March, the number of small transfers of less than $10,000 in Bitcoin chain transactions dropped sharply by 62% compared with the same period last year, hitting a new low since 2023. We quote analyst Darkfost’s observation: “Historically, when Bitcoin performs well, retail demand will increase sharply; and during a correction, demand will also drop rapidly.” We believe that the absence of retail investors in this round has caused the market to lose the most important bottom-receiving force – a bear market without a “taker” often takes longer to complete the bottoming.
When will Bitcoin rebound and recover?
On March 30, after experiencing a dismal performance of 24.6% in Q1 2026, the price of Bitcoin was still fluctuating and consolidating near the key position of $66,000 as of press time.
Bitcoin technical analysis in the past 4H
Judging from the current 4-hour K-line chart of BTC on Bijie.com, the overall situation is in the stage of "oversold rebound after deep decline, and short kinetic energy decays":
Price and Bollinger Bands, the current price is 66,805.30. The price rebounded from near the lower track of Bollinger Bands (65,176.53) and is still running below the middle track (68,514.31). The Bollinger Bands opened downward but began to narrow, indicating that the short-term correction trend has been suspended and has entered the oversold recovery stage.
Bitcoin trend in the past 4 hours on March 30
RSI(14) = 43.84. The indicator rebounded from the low (near 30) and left the oversold range, indicating that the short momentum has been significantly released and the bullish sentiment has begun to recover. Still below the 50-plus-short watershed, the medium-term trend has not yet reversed, and it is a weak rebound.
MACD, the fast line (90.86) is below the slow line (-723.34), the green short energy column continues to shrink, and the fast line shows signs of turning upward, indicating that the short kinetic energy is exhausted, and a golden cross is expected to form in the short term, which is the leading signal for a rebound.
We believe that BTC is currently in the oversold recovery stage after a deep decline, and the short momentum has significantly weakened. The probability of a short-term rebound is high, but the trend reversal still needs to be confirmed.
The cycle is lengthening: it may be postponed to 2027
We judge that if the price further falls below the key support, the recovery window of this bear market may be postponed to 2027. Historical data reveals a strong correlation between the depth of corrections and the length of recovery: Research from Ecoinometrics shows that for every additional 10% decline, it usually takes about 80 more days to recapture the previous high. At present, Bitcoin has retraced approximately 48% from its historical high of approximately US$126,000 at the end of 2025. We note that after Bitcoin's dismal performance of 24.6% in Q1 of 2026, if this decline expands to 60%-68% (that is, the price falls to the range of US$40,000-45,000), the full recovery cycle may take up to 440 days, delaying the strong bull market momentum until after the second quarter of 2027.
Bitcoin plunges 24.6% in Q1 2026
Conclusion
Looking back at Bitcoin’s profound adjustment in Q1 of 2026, the essence of its worst quarterly performance is a violent resonance between the turning point of macro liquidity and geopolitics. Different from simple panic selling in the past, this round of decline is accompanied by the capitulation of miners, continued outflows of ETF funds, and a fundamental reshaping of regulatory expectations. When the short-term emotional panic and passive liquidation are gradually released, the market may find a value anchor again at a lower position. The above content is an analysis of "Bitcoin plunged 24.6% in Q1 of 2026, the worst quarterly performance since 2018". For the latest information on Bitcoin, please pay attention to Bijie.com.
Disclaimer: Readers are requested to strictly abide by local laws and regulations. The content of this article is based on public market information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
