TRX rose to around $0.35 on Wednesday, retesting a key resistance level amid a general recovery in the crypto market. Foreign media, citing analysis, noted that while TRX has been performing strongly in recent months, the lack of synchronized improvement in trading volume and on-chain activity has raised concerns about the sustainability of this rally.
Still among the top performers this year
TRX has risen approximately 23% year-to-date, ranking relatively high among major altcoins. Since rebounding from a low of around $0.26 in early February, the token has continued to rise, and the market is currently watching to see if it can further approach the 2024 highs.
However, intraday data showed that TRX trading volume decreased by approximately 13%, to around $639 million. The price rose, but trading activity declined, indicating that short-term buying pressure was not particularly strong.
Price increases and on-chain synchronization
Analysts have noted a significant divergence between the recent surge in TRX and on-chain activity. CryptoQuant data shows that the total amount of tokens transferred has decreased from 17.3 billion to 12.2 billion, reflecting a decline in network usage.
The article argues that a healthy price increase typically requires both on-chain activity and real-world usage to strengthen in tandem. If prices continue to rise but network data doesn't follow suit, the market is more likely to interpret this upward trend as speculative rather than driven by fundamental improvements.
Furthermore, TRON's TRX burn rate decreased by approximately 11% in the first quarter of 2026. This was due to more users shifting to staking rather than burning tokens for transaction fee discounts. This also means that the support from supply contraction has weakened.
In the short term, pay attention to $0.36 and the support level below.
In the short term, the $0.35 level remains the current focus. A clear break above $0.36 could see the market move towards the $0.40 area. TRX previously reached an all-time high above $0.44 in December 2024.
However, the article also mentions that some technical indicators have shown signs of slowing down. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered a relatively overbought zone, and while the MACD still maintains a bullish structure, its momentum has shown signs of weakening.
If upward momentum continues to slow, the key support level for TRX is concentrated between $0.32 and $0.29, corresponding to the area where the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are located. Meanwhile, continued scrutiny surrounding Justin Sun could amplify selling pressure if market sentiment weakens.
