Trump Delays Strike on Iran
Last night, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE directly told Trump: if you strike Iran, their oil fields and gas facilities will be bombed. This利益算计 is more straightforward than diplomatic rhetoric.
Within 24 hours before Trump tweeted the delay announcement, he spoke with leaders of these three countries. According to one U.S. official, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE delivered a unified message:
"Give negotiations a chance, because if you strike Iran, we will all pay the price." Another source put it more directly: the leaders told Trump they "do not want their oil and energy facilities destroyed."
If the U.S. strikes Iran, Iran has the capability to reduce the entire Persian Gulf's energy infrastructure to ashes. Saudi oil fields, UAE export terminals, Qatar's LNG facilities—all are within range of Iranian ballistic missiles. Once these facilities are damaged, the global energy market won't just rise a few percentage points.
This Scenario Has Historical Precedent
In September 2019, Houthi armed drones and cruise missiles attacked Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq refinery and Khurais oil field, instantaneously cutting Saudi oil production in half by 5.7 million barrels per day, causing approximately 5% global supply disruption.
That day, Brent crude surged nearly 20% at one point during trading, touching $71.95/barrel—the largest intraday surge since 1991; it closed up approximately 10.6%, rising from about $60/barrel to $66/barrel.
Keep in mind, that was just one regional armed group's attack. If Iran retaliated as a nation, the scale and precision would be in an entirely different league. Iran's missile capabilities, built up over years, now have the ability to strike any target in the Persian Gulf—this isn't just saber-rattling.
When the Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities again in March 2022, Brent rose approximately 4.3% that day, closing above $112/barrel. It's not that the attack wasn't severe—it's that the Russia-Ukraine war had already pushed oil prices to around $110/barrel, and the market had already priced in Middle East supply risks.
This comparison precisely validates a core pattern: when oil prices are already high, the same supply shock brings significantly smaller marginal increases; but if the baseline price is low, that shock could trigger a catastrophic price spiral.
If Iran Acts Directly, the Situation Would Be Entirely Different!
Because that would mean the possible complete shutdown of Persian Gulf shipping and the Strait of Hormuz—affecting not hundreds of thousands of barrels, but approximately 20 million barrels of global oil supply daily. International oil prices could soar to the sky!
The U.S. Middle East policy is largely underwritten by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries—they provide funding, diplomatic support, and geopolitical buffer, while the U.S. provides military protection.
Both sides get what they need, but with an implicit premise: no large-scale direct military conflict in the Middle East. If it breaks out, the U.S. can use military means to defeat Iran, but the aftermath costs—oil price surges, inflation acceleration, global supply chain fractures—would be borne by the entire world.
So what these three countries' leaders told Trump was less of a plea and more of an accounting: we won't bear the cost of Iran's retaliation if you insist on striking. If you do, the consequences are on you.
For the crypto market, the significance of this news lies in recalibrating the geopolitical risk game structure.
The three Gulf countries stepping in to mediate shows their voice in the Middle East chess game is greater than previously estimated, and that their interests don't fully align with the U.S.
The U.S. wants to use military pressure to force Iran to make concessions, but Saudi Arabia's primary concern is energy facility security—these two goals don't always align.
The three countries' mediation reduces the probability of conflict escalation, and energy facilities are temporarily safe.
For gold and Bitcoin, the impact is relatively neutral—the short-term tail risk has temporarily disappeared, but the Iran nuclear negotiation fundamentals remain unchanged. Shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the risk premium hasn't fully receded.
Now It's Iran's Turn to Respond
If Iran perceives this as a sign of weakness and refuses the "enriched uranium" deal proposed by the U.S., American patience will run out sooner, and war could erupt in an instant—international oil prices will break through previous highs!
If Iran uses this window to advance negotiations, tensions will temporarily ease.
Disclaimer: Please readers strictly abide by local laws and regulations. This article is based on publicly available market information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
