Hang Seng Indexes Company held its quarterly index review on Friday, with Zhipu and MiniMax considered the top candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index. If approved, it would trigger the opening of the Stock Connect program and the inflow of tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars in southbound funds. The two stocks subsequently surged during Friday's trading session.
Analysts point out that Zhipu and MiniMax, whose cumulative gains since their listings in January this year have both exceeded 300%, are leading candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH and Composite Indices during this quarterly review, with their recent significant market capitalization growth being the main reason. On Friday, Zhipu's share price rose as much as 29%, while MiniMax's rose by as much as 14%.
Zhipu is expected to qualify for the Hong Kong Stock Connect as early as June 8th, based on the fast-track inclusion rules, while MiniMax, which adopts a dual-class share structure, is expected to be eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect as early as August.According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, Zhipu may attract HK$51 billion to HK$92 billion in southbound buying, while MiniMax could attract up to HK$47 billion; the combined weight of the two in the Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to be around 9%.
However, the upcoming wave of share releases in July is the biggest variable: MiniMax will have about 65% of its total shares entering the market, and Zhipu will also have about 6% of its shares released. The valuation premium supported by the extremely low circulating ratio will face its first major test.
Expectations of index inclusion drove a surge in both stocks.
According to a Bloomberg report citing analysts, Zhipu and MiniMax are nearing the inclusion threshold after their market capitalization has expanded rapidly. Coupled with the Hang Seng Indexes Company's quarterly review meeting on Friday, both stocks rose together during the trading session.
Since their listing in January this year, both stocks have seen cumulative gains of over 300%, ranking first and second on the list of Hong Kong IPOs with the largest gains in 2026.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jason Liao points out that pure AI large-scale model stocks are extremely scarce in the A-share market, and southbound demand is expected to provide sustained support for these two stocks. He states that mainland investors typically hold 11% to 20% of the equity in major Hong Kong technology companies through the Stock Connect program, and Zhipu and MiniMax are expected to attract similar amounts of capital.
Smartkarma analyst Brian Freitas also stated that inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index will pave the way for the two companies to access other global and local indices. As the circulating shares gradually expand, it will bring more index inclusion opportunities and capital inflows in the future.
If successfully included in the Hang Seng TECH Index, Zhipu could qualify for the Stock Connect program as early as June 8th, according to the fast-track inclusion rules. MiniMax, however, due to its weighted voting rights (WVR) structure, must meet additional compliance conditions—including being listed for a certain period, reaching daily average market capitalization and total turnover thresholds—and is expected to be eligible for Stock Connect access no earlier than August.
Southbound Funds: Potential Inflows of 10 Billion Yuan
Estimates suggest that the potential scale of southbound capital flows is considerable.Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that the inclusion of Zhipu in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program could attract HK$51 billion to HK$92 billion in net southbound buying, while MiniMax could see inflows of up to HK$47 billion.Jason Liao pointed out that historically, mainland investors typically hold 11% to 20% of the shares in major Hong Kong-listed technology companies, and the shareholding ratios in the two companies may be similar.
Furthermore, Bloomberg estimates that ETFs and passive products tracking the Hang Seng TECH Index have purchased approximately $4 billion worth of shares. The Bloomberg report points out that the inflow of funds from mainland Chinese investors, coupled with ETF purchases, helps offset the selling pressure ahead of the July lock-up expiration. If the two companies collectively acquire approximately 9% of the index weighting, passive products tracking the relevant index will passively establish corresponding positions.
According to HSBC Holdings Plc estimates, currently only about 5% of MiniMax's total share capital is freely tradable, with approximately 65% of that total share capital entering the market in July; Zhipu's approximately 6% share capital will be unlocked in July, and another approximately 40% will be unlocked at the end of January next year. Brian Freitas stated..."The first unlocking of shares in July will significantly increase the number of freely tradable shares," while "the unlocking in January will bring more opportunities for index inclusion and capital inflows."
From a financial perspective, both companies are in a phase of high R&D investment and low commercialization. Zhipu's revenue in the first half of 2025 was RMB 191 million, with R&D expenses reaching RMB 1.594 billion during the same period; MiniMax's revenue in the first nine months of 2025 was US$53.44 million, with R&D expenses of US$180 million during the same period. After the lock-up period expires, the market's pricing logic for these two companies may shift from a liquidity scarcity premium to fundamental indicators such as revenue growth and the pace of loss improvement.
