Early this morning (May 26), Trump posted a tweet on Truth Social that shocked the entire international community: "Iran's enriched uranium must be immediately handed over to the United States, transported back to the U.S. for destruction, or destroyed in place in cooperation with Iran, or at other acceptable locations, with the Atomic Energy Commission or its equivalent agency to 'witness this process and event.'" Clearly, this was not a negotiation with Iran, but another ultimatum! Because just yesterday evening at 20:23, President Trump had also posted on Truth Social: "Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are progressing well! Either we reach an agreement beneficial to all parties, or we reach no agreement at all—back to the battlefield, with guns blazing, and on an unprecedented scale—far more severe—and this is absolutely not what anyone wants!" Looking back now, U.S.-Iran negotiations have been going back and forth for over a month. Starting with the Strait of Hormuz blockade in March, global oil prices surged, followed by multiple rounds of indirect negotiations in April and May. Just when they were approaching the point where a 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement draft was about to emerge, Trump suddenly threw the "enriched uranium" issue onto the table, with a tone of either surrender or war, making the U.S.-Iran situation once again uncertain. How much enriched uranium does Iran actually have? Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shows Iran possesses 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium, with total enriched uranium inventory reaching 9,874.9 kg. 42 kg of 60% enriched uranium, when further enriched to 90%, is enough to build one nuclear bomb. By this standard, 440.9 kg is equivalent to approximately 10 nuclear bomb's worth of material. However, after U.S. and Israeli precision airstrikes destroyed part of the facilities, no one can give an exact number of how much usable enriched uranium Iran currently holds. When Trump mentioned "nuclear dust" in his tweet, he may have been mocking, or hinting that these materials have already been bombed into oblivion. But either way, he will not allow Iran to retain even a trace of enriched uranium. Hormuz Strait: 30 days, 60 days, phased Meanwhile, on the same day Trump posted his tweet, multiple media outlets disclosed the core terms of the U.S.-Iran draft memorandum. This agreement is essentially a temporary framework centered on ending the war, with the nuclear issue deliberately pushed to the back. 60 days. The ceasefire would last 60 days, renewable. This is the most basic guarantee for both parties to sit down and negotiate. What happens in 60 days—Iran clears the strait's mines, enough for the U.S. to begin easing sanctions, but not enough to resolve any fundamental disagreements. 30 days. Within these 60 days, Iran needs to restore Strait of Hormuz shipping to "near pre-war levels" within 30 days. Note, not restoring sovereignty, but restoring navigation. The draft requires Iran to clear mines and maritime obstacles, ensuring free passage for merchant ships and tankers—Iranian state media stated: the strait will not fully return to pre-war status, and Iran will continue to exercise "sovereignty." Phased. Sanctions exemptions are not given all at once. The U.S. principle is relief in exchange for performance: Iran makes verifiable concessions first, then the U.S. gradually eases restrictions. First unfreezing some assets, then exempting oil exports, then discussing broader sanctions relief. The most critical nuclear issue was explicitly postponed to 60 days after the agreement is signed. This means the current negotiation covers ceasefire + strait navigation restoration + sanctions relief, not a "Nuclear Deal 2.0." Therefore, Trump's choice to directly issue the "enriched uranium" ultimatum this morning appears more like pressure on the negotiation pace—he is unwilling to wait for the so-called 30 to 60 day negotiation window, but wants an immediate, clear answer. Not only that, on the same day Trump publicly issued the "enriched uranium" ultimatum, explosions were reported in Bandar Abbas and surrounding coastal areas of southern Iran. Such temporal overlap is hard to ignore. From the overall situation, a very clear signal is emerging: negotiations are indeed still progressing, but the entire process has entered a highly sensitive stage. The Red Lines of Both Parties The most fundamental contradiction in U.S.-Iran negotiations has now been nakedly exposed in Trump's tweets. -Iran is willing to negotiate frozen assets, oil export exemptions, even strait navigation—all of these are negotiable. But uranium enrichment is the bottom line. That is a nuclear industrial system Iran spent 20 years building, investing billions of dollars, and enduring multiple rounds of sanctions to establish. Having Iran abandon enriched uranium equals abandoning the core pillar of its national strategic deterrent. The opposition from Iranian hardliners is loud enough to end any leader's political career who makes this concession. -But Trump's logic is different. In his view, since the U.S. is willing to unfreeze Iranian assets, ease oil sanctions, and accept a 60-day temporary ceasefire—Iran must give up something in return, and enriched uranium is his asking price. His word was "nuclear dust," clearly showing contempt and impatience. Two red lines have collided. No one knows who will back down first. What signal does this send to the crypto market? Bitcoin recently rebounded from around $74,000 to nearly $77,000-$78,000. The market has been digesting Trump's May 23 announcement that the agreement was essentially concluded, followed by news that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire had been reached. This has clearly eased external concerns about escalation and driven a phased recovery in risk asset sentiment. The logic is actually straightforward: as agreement expectations warmed, market concerns about geopolitical risk escalation began to cool, oil prices fell accordingly, and global risk assets rallied broadly. At least so far, this trading logic still holds. But the problem lies precisely here—this round of gains is essentially still driven by typical macro environment external factors. Bitcoin's short-term price increase is not due to a sudden surge in on-chain activity, nor is it because spot ETF inflows have accelerated (currently experiencing sustained large-scale net outflows), nor is the market repricing the halving narrative. Instead, it more closely resembles a recovery in risk appetite brought about by the easing of macro geopolitical risks. Conclusion However, the current Strait of Hormuz situation still contains enormous uncertainty. The cause of repeated explosions in Iran remains unclear, positive signals continue to emerge from the negotiating table, but before a real agreement is put on paper, any unexpected event could cause the situation to collapse instantly. The outside world sees "close to reaching an agreement," but the reality of the game may still be stuck in the most critical conditions. More critically, Iranian officials have publicly denied accepting any nuclear restrictions at this stage. And Trump's public issuance of an ultimatum demanding Iran surrender its enriched uranium has already touched upon the most sensitive, hardest-to-concede issue in the negotiation agreement. The question is: Will Iran really give up its uranium? This question may be more worth the market's attention than how high Bitcoin will go next.