Bitcoin traded at around $73,500 during Asian trading hours, about 10% lower than its high earlier this month. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant suggests that the "record high supply from long-term holders," often seen as a bullish signal, may not necessarily indicate strong buying pressure this time. Instead, it could suggest insufficient new capital inflows and a slower turnover of tokens.
Long-term holdings rose to 15.8 million units.
Data shows that the number of Bitcoins currently classified as long-term holders has risen to approximately 15.8 million. Typically, this indicates continued investor buying, tightening the circulating supply and supporting the price.
However, CryptoQuant believes that this indicator reflects more of a lack of movement in the coins than active buying in the market. As new buyers decrease and existing holders continue to hold their coins, more Bitcoin will be classified as long-term holdings over time, thus pushing up this number.
Short-term holdings have decreased by 2.2 million contracts since December of last year.
CryptoQuant estimates that the supply of short-term holders has decreased by approximately 2.2 million BTC since last December. Of these, about 900,000 BTC came from Coinbase reserves that crossed the 155-day threshold and were reclassified as long-term holdings.
This change, technically a shift in terminology, reflects a more direct fact: more and more Bitcoins are sitting idle, with little market activity. The report argues that in this environment, the apparent tightening of supply may not correspond to genuine increased demand.
Whale demand and institutional demand both slowed down.
According to CryptoQuant's classification, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, often referred to as whale wallets, have seen their balances decline at the fastest rate since 2026; since February, monthly balance growth has remained near zero.
Another type of wallet holding 100 to 1,000 BTC is considered by CryptoQuant as an important sample for observing institutional demand. The annual balance growth of this group slowed significantly after peaking in October 2025. At that time, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net monthly inflow of $3.4 billion.
CryptoQuant points out that this wallet contains a large number of spot ETF and corporate treasury buyers, so its slowdown also means that new demand from institutional investors is weakening.
ETFs and prediction markets also point to range-bound trading.
In addition to on-chain data, other market indicators are also giving similar signals. Glassnode recently stated that spot demand is weakening, ETF inflows have fallen from previous highs, and the current capital inflows are still insufficient to support prices to continue to rise above the key cost range of approximately $78,000.
The agency noted that its realized profit/loss ratio is currently 1.56, lower than the 2 to 5 range commonly seen in the early stages of a sustained bull market. Meanwhile, a Polymarket contract tracking Bitcoin's closing range on May 30th shows that the market has approximately an 84% probability of betting that BTC will close between $72,000 and $76,000.
Considering on-chain holdings, ETF fund flows, and prediction market pricing, the main problem currently facing the market is not concentrated selling, but insufficient new buying. Bitcoin is still holding above $70,000, but the price is supported more by existing holdings than by a continuous influx of new funds.
