Global stock markets continued to hit new highs, oil prices fell significantly, and expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire eased risk sentiment, but the crypto market failed to follow suit. Bitcoin is still hovering around $73,000, and Ethereum remains below $2,000, lacking new driving factors in the short term.

Underperformed other risk assets over the past week

Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 6%, while Ethereum has dropped approximately 6.4%. Solana, XRP, and DOGE have also generally declined, with weekly losses ranging from roughly 4.9% to 6.7%. In contrast, HYPE bucked the trend, rising by about 5.8%.

Meanwhile, global risk assets performed even better. The MSCI World Equity Index rose to a record high, and Asian stock markets also hit new records. Brent crude oil fell back to about $93 a barrel, with a cumulative decline of more than 18% in May, marking its worst monthly performance since March 2020.

Geopolitical easing fails to trigger a crypto rebound

The report mentioned that the US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and restart nuclear negotiations, which led the market to lower its concerns about oil supply risks. However, this news did not trigger a sustained rebound in crypto prices.

sFOX CEO Javier Martinez stated that the market had already priced in the ceasefire news. When Bitcoin failed to break through resistance, related trades were subsequently reversed. In other words, the marginal impact of geopolitical news on the crypto market is diminishing.

Funds are paying more attention to ETFs and regulation.

Analysts believe that institutional investors are currently more focused on regulatory developments in Washington than on news from Tehran. Martinez noted that US crypto market structure legislation, such as the CLARITY Act, is becoming a key focus for institutions.

FxPro analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen below its 50-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average continues to decline; this combination has historically corresponded to a weaker market phase. Swissblock also previously stated that Bitcoin has entered a high-risk zone amid rising selling pressure and weakening demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Spot ETFs were a major driver of the rally from 2024 to 2025. With slowing inflows and a market that no longer reacts strongly to every piece of news related to Iran, crypto assets lack clear new catalysts in the short term.