Foreign media analysis suggests that after the recent pullback in Bitcoin's price, the supply currently at a loss has risen to approximately 8.33 million coins. This implies that many positions were established near previous highs, and as the upward momentum slows, the pressure on short- to medium-term holders is increasing.
$73,000 becomes the first line of support
Currently, $73,000 corresponds to the average holding cost for holders with 1 to 3 months of holding, and is considered the first level the market needs to defend. If this level is breached, market attention may shift to the $69,000 area, which corresponds to the average cost for holders with 18 months to 2 years of holding.
There is selling pressure between $79,000 and $84,000.
The article points out that resistance is forming around $79,000 and $84,000, which correspond to the cost basis of more recent buyers. If prices rebound to these areas, some holders with unrealized losses may sell near breakeven, further limiting upside potential.
However, if Bitcoin can regain its footing above $79,000, it indicates that buying pressure is starting to absorb the supply above, which will help alleviate the pressure from trapped positions and improve short-term sentiment.
Spot trading is still dominated by sellers.
In addition to the cost structure of holding positions, spot market data also reinforces this judgment. The article states that the spot transaction volume difference remains negative, indicating that sellers are still releasing shares into the market, while buying power is insufficient.
During Bitcoin's decline from just over $80,000 to $73,000, sell orders significantly outnumbered buy orders on multiple occasions. Related data repeatedly fell below negative $200 million, and during the rapid decline in February, it briefly approached negative $600 million, reflecting that market liquidity was primarily dominated by sell orders.
The rebound and recovery still lacked sustainability.
Although there were brief rebounds during this period, briefly pushing the trading volume difference to the range of $100 million to $200 million, these recoveries failed to generate sustained upward momentum. The article argues that this is one of the reasons why recent rebounds have quickly stalled.
Overall, Bitcoin is likely to continue its consolidation phase until selling pressure in the spot market eases significantly. Market sentiment will only have a chance to improve if buying pressure strengthens and the supply above is gradually absorbed.
