Bitcoin remained around $73,700 on May 31, with the market still consolidating within a narrow range. Traders are currently focused on whether the $71,400 level can hold and whether the price has the ability to climb back above $78,200.

Prices continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.

As of the time of this report, BTC was trading at approximately $73,713, up 0.28% in the last 24 hours, but still down 4.18% over the past 7 days. The 24-hour trading volume was approximately $16.09 billion, with intraday fluctuations between $73,469 and $74,110.

This trend indicates that the market has not yet formed a clear breakout. Although Bitcoin's market capitalization is still close to $1.47 trillion, short-term buying momentum is insufficient, and trading volume has not increased significantly.

Analysts believe that for a more robust recovery, prices need to return to the $78,000 to $80,000 range, accompanied by stronger trading volume. Until then, the market remains caught between support and selling pressure.

$71,400 becomes a key short-term level

Market analyst Marcus Corvinus stated that Bitcoin is approaching a key level. According to his observation, the cost line for the 30-day holding group is around $78,200, and this area has now turned into short-term resistance.

This means that once the price rebounds to around $78,200, some previously trapped holders may choose to sell near their break-even point, thus increasing upward pressure. Only a decisive break above this level would indicate that buyers have regained control.

Regarding support levels, he mentioned that the cost line for investors holding positions for 1 to 3 months is around $71,400, which he considers the most important near-term support level. This is because these holders generally still have unrealized profits.

If the $71,400 level holds, bulls still have a chance to launch a new round of recovery. If this level is breached, short-term holders' confidence may weaken further, and the market may face a deeper pullback.

Short-term rebound expectations coexist with long-term divergences.

Analyst Ali Martinez offered a more positive short-term signal, stating that Bitcoin has shown a TD Sequential buy signal, and the price could rebound to around $75,000.

However, even after rising to $75,000, Bitcoin has not yet broken out of the stronger resistance zone of $78,000 to $80,000. Therefore, this assessment is closer to a short-term correction than a confirmation of a trend reversal.

Meanwhile, some analysts remain cautious from a longer-term perspective. Crypto Tice believes that Bitcoin cycles typically follow a pattern of "three years of bull market followed by one year of bear market." If this pattern continues, the next significant low point may not occur until the end of 2026.

This viewpoint argues that it may be premature to conclude that the market has bottomed out. During the previous downturns in 2018 and 2022, there were several instances where the market prematurely declared it had "bottomed out," but the true lows occurred much later.

Geopolitical risks and weak indicators dampen sentiment.

In addition to price structure, external risks are also weighing on market sentiment. The report mentions that US sanctions targeting Iranian oil trade, as well as uncertainties surrounding peace negotiations, continue to make the energy market and risk assets sensitive to breaking news.

In terms of technical indicators, the cumulative/distribution indicator is around 12.68 million, and has been roughly flat or slightly weakening in recent months. Compared to the situation in early 2025 when the price and this indicator rose in tandem, there are still no obvious signs of continued accumulation.

The RSI is currently at 37.47, below the neutral level of 50 and also below its signal line of 42.41, indicating that short-term momentum remains weak. However, numerically, Bitcoin has not yet entered an extremely oversold zone.

Overall, the market will likely continue to fluctuate around two key levels: support at $71,400 and resistance at $78,200. A break below this support could intensify discussions about a potential cycle low as late as 2026.