Foreign media outlet AMBCrypto states that Bitcoin's current price structure is similar to the pre-bottoming phase of 2022. The article points out that long-term holders are still accumulating, and the market bottoming process is not yet fully over.
Long-term holders still dominate supply
The continued rise in the proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term holders indicates that more Bitcoin is entering a mature supply phase rather than re-entering circulation. The article argues that this typically signifies an improving market structure, but also suggests that distribution pressure has not yet materialized significantly.
Cycle models point to the pre-bottoming stage
The article mentions that the current relevant indicator is approximately -0.1758, with the Bitcoin price around $73,600. A similar reading appeared in June 2022, when the market subsequently continued to decline instead of immediately forming a stable bottom.
The true cycle lows in 2018 and 2022 were even deeper, approaching -0.7493 and -0.7798 respectively. AMBCrypto believes that the current market is more likely in the middle of a bottoming process than a confirmed reversal.
Spot demand still lags behind derivatives demand.
The article concludes by noting that spot demand remains weaker than derivatives activity. If this gap persists, the market may continue to fluctuate in the bottom range rather than directly entering a clear recovery phase.
