Bitcoin continued its decline, falling below $68,000 to its lowest level in nearly two months. With continued outflows from spot ETFs and concentrated liquidation of long positions, traders' expectations for a short-term rebound have clearly cooled.
Predicting a market downturn
Users of the prediction market Myriad currently favor a Bitcoin drop to $55,000 rather than a rebound to $84,000. Recent data shows this direction has a probability of approximately 53%.
On Monday, the market's assessment of an upward trend was still dominant, with users at one point giving a 62% probability that Bitcoin would rebound. Within just one day, expectations reversed significantly, reflecting a rapid weakening of sentiment.
ETFs have seen net outflows for 11 consecutive days.
While prices are under pressure, US Bitcoin spot ETFs are also experiencing continuous outflows. Reports indicate that these products have seen net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative outflow of over $3.4 billion.
Following continuous redemptions, the overall inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has turned negative this year, meaning that outflows have exceeded inflows. This change has weakened market expectations regarding reliance on institutional buying.
Strategy sells tokens and liquidates.
Another factor attracting market attention is that Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy sold 32 bitcoins last week, worth approximately $2.5 million. This marks the company's first Bitcoin sale since 2022. Previously, the company held approximately $57 billion worth of Bitcoin.
In addition to selling pressure in the spot market and weakening sentiment, liquidations in the derivatives market are also amplifying volatility. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, approximately $600 million of long positions betting on Bitcoin's rise have been forcibly liquidated.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $67,312, down more than 5% in the past 24 hours and more than 12% in the past week. At the current price, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from its all-time high of $126,080.
