Foreign media analysis suggests that although SOL's decline since May has been less than Bitcoin's, this relative performance has not changed its overall weak trend. With the price breaking below the lower edge of its three-month range around $76.7, market expectations for further short-term declines are rising.
The article mentions that Bitcoin's weakness over the past week dragged down most crypto assets, and SOL was also impacted. Looking at the phased decline, SOL has fallen approximately 9.56% since the beginning of May, lower than Bitcoin's approximately 12.09% decline during the same period, seemingly showing slightly stronger resilience.
However, looking at a longer timeframe, SOL's price action differs from Bitcoin's. Bitcoin has rebounded since February, recovering some of its previous losses; while SOL has remained range-bound for an extended period, failing to break through the previous support level around $120.
It closed below the range on June 2nd.
The article points out that since February, SOL has mainly traded between $76.7 and $97.6. On June 2, SOL closed at $74.23, clearly breaking below the lower edge of this consolidation range that had lasted for about three months.
Although the low of $67.50 reached in February has not yet been breached, the market structure has clearly weakened after the breakout from the range. Based on this, the article argues that SOL may be entering its next downward phase.
The $80 level is a key short-term level to watch.
The article argues that if prices rebound, the $76 to $80 area could become a new resistance zone. If the rebound fails to hold above this level, the market may continue its decline towards the $67.5 low.
Conversely, if SOL can break above $80 again, the short-term bearish outlook will be weakened. This level therefore becomes a key area to observe whether the subsequent trend will continue to deteriorate.
The longer-term trend remains weak.
From a higher timeframe perspective, the article considers $100 as a significant resistance level, arguing that the bulls' previous failure to break through this level effectively indicates that selling pressure remains above.
The article also mentions that future changes to the Solana token economic model, such as a daily burning mechanism leading to supply contraction, could provide some support for valuation. However, given the current price structure, such long-term factors are insufficient to reverse the short-term bearish trend.
