Following Bitcoin's recent pullback, a rare change has emerged in the on-chain holding structure: the circulating supply currently at a loss has exceeded the profitable supply. Historically, this signal typically appears during deep bear markets, and BTC's latest dip also touched the long-watched 200-week moving average.
Unrealized losses increased to 10.5 million units.
According to Glassnode data, on an hourly basis, the unrealized loss supply of Bitcoin has risen to approximately 10.5 million coins, while the profitable supply is approximately 9.8 million coins. This means that of the approximately 20 million circulating coins, more than half are currently in an unrealized loss state.
This marks the first time in this cycle that unprofitable supply has surpassed profitable supply. In previous cycles, this shift typically occurred only during periods of significant market correction, often near key lows.
The 200-week moving average was touched again.
During this decline, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $61,300, touching its 200-week moving average. This indicator reflects the average price over the past 200 weeks and has long been considered a significant support level during bear markets.
Historically, Bitcoin has retraced to this level in every major bear market. Therefore, this recent touch of the 200-week moving average is considered by the market to be a significant reference point for the current price range.
The duration varied greatly throughout history.
- This situation lasted for nearly a year during the 2015 bear market.
- 2019 lasted approximately 6 months.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 lasted only about one month.
- The 2022 bear market lasted approximately 6 months.
This means that although this signal has coincided with the bottom of bear markets many times in the past, it cannot be used to judge that the market will complete its recovery in a short period of time.
If Bitcoin falls below the $60,000 mark, the next widely watched support area is around $54,000, corresponding to the realized price on the blockchain. The realized price represents the average cost of all circulating Bitcoins based on their last on-chain transfer price. Historically, Bitcoin has fallen below this level during major bear markets.
