SHIBOR recently broke below its long-term support zone, and market attention has shifted to whether it can recover this range quickly. In addition to the weakening spot price, declining derivatives open interest, negative funding rates, and rising exchange reserves are all reinforcing short-term bearish signals.
It broke below the $0.0000051 support level.
As of press time, SHIB was trading at approximately $0.000004929, down more than 7.8% in the last 24 hours. The article states that the $0.0000051 level had been a key support zone for the past few months, and its breach now indicates that the downward trend is continuing.
Unlike previous pullbacks that saw rapid buying, this time the rebound after the decline was limited, indicating weak buying interest at lower levels. The market is currently more focused on whether SHIB can regain its previous support level; otherwise, the price may continue to fall.
Derivatives data synchronously weakened
Derivatives data suggests that market risk appetite is declining. Open interest has fallen significantly over the past three months, from over 80 million to around 50 million, indicating that traders are reducing their positions rather than continuing to increase their bullish bets.
Meanwhile, the volume-weighted funding rate has turned negative, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the perpetual contract market. The simultaneous occurrence of declining open interest and negative funding rates typically indicates insufficient willingness to buy on dips, with more funds choosing to reduce their risk exposure.
- Open interest: decreased from over 80 million to approximately 50 million within 3 months.
- Funding rates: have fallen into negative territory
- Spot price: Approximately US$0.000004929
Exchange reserves rise
On-chain data is also sending weak signals. The article mentions that more SHIBs have recently been transferred to exchanges, leading to an increase in exchange reserves. Typically, this means an increase in the number of tokens available for sale, resulting in higher selling pressure in the market.
With prices having broken through key support levels, increased exchange reserves are attracting more attention. Unlike capital outflows from exchanges and a reduction in available shares, rising reserves tend to amplify short-term volatility, especially when sentiment is already weak.
In the short term, pay attention to whether it can recover lost ground.
Next, the area around $0.0000051 remains the most important level to watch. If the price can return above this range, the recent break below support may be corrected, and the market may experience a technical rebound.
However, if the SHIB continues to trade below this level, the bearish sentiment will be further strengthened, and the probability of a deeper pullback in the coming weeks will increase. Overall, the spot, derivatives, and exchange reserves data do not currently show any significant improvement.
