Foreign media analysis suggests that after falling from around $82,000, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $63,000, with the price now approaching its 200-week moving average. This level has served as significant support near cyclical lows in 2015, 2018, and 2020, so the market is watching to see if this area can stabilize the downward trend once again.
$60,000 to $62,000 becomes a key range
The article states that after Bitcoin fell below $65,000, it has returned to a long-term support zone. Based on the current price action, the area around $61,289 is considered a short-term support level, while the $60,000 to $62,000 range is a more significant price zone. If the price remains above this range, there is still room for a rebound; if it falls below, the market may face greater selling pressure.
The article also mentions that weekly momentum indicators are weakening, and the MACD is nearing a bearish crossover, which is one of the reasons for the cautious market sentiment. The article argues that if the bulls fail to hold the current support level, prices could further decline below $60,000.
The on-chain cost line is still below.
From an on-chain valuation perspective, Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $53,800, still significantly lower than the spot price. The realized price is generally considered the average cost of holding Bitcoin across the entire network and is an important reference point during bear markets. Based on this, the article argues that despite the recent significant pullback, most Bitcoin holders are still generally in a profitable position.
This means that this round of decline is more like a significant market reset than a deep bear market that has already entered a state of complete collapse. Only when spot prices continue to approach or even fall below realized prices will the market be more likely to experience concentrated stop-loss orders and emotional selling.
MVRV falls to near-month low
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin's MVRV has fallen to around 1.19, a relatively low level in recent months. This metric compares market capitalization with realized market capitalization and is often used to determine if an asset has deviated too much from its cost basis. Historically, MVRV close to 1 has often corresponded to a market accumulation phase or a temporary bottom.
The article argues that the rapid decline in MVRV indicates a significant cooling of market optimism, with some short-term holders already at or nearing break-even. In other words, previously vulnerable positions may have been liquidated during the correction, which will increase short-term volatility but also gradually bring valuations back to lower levels.
In summary, foreign media believe that Bitcoin is at a directional crossroads. If the $60,000 to $62,000 range holds, the market may still see a strong recovery; however, if this range is broken, the risk of the price falling to the $50,000 to $55,000 range will increase.
