Foreign media, citing market analysis, suggest that XRP's recent pullback is more likely a retest of a key area following a long-term breakout, rather than a complete weakening of the trend. Current market focus is on the $1.20 to $1.30 range, considered a watershed for whether the medium- to long-term structure can be sustained.
The $1.20 to $1.30 range will be a key area to watch.
The report mentions that chart analyst Celal Kucuker believes the old resistance level that XRP previously broke through is now transforming into a new potential support level. According to this assessment, a return of the price to the original resistance zone does not necessarily indicate a failed structure; rather, it could be a reconfirmation of the breakout's validity.
He identified a core range of $1.20 to $1.30. If prices stabilize in this area, the market can maintain its assessment of a long-term upward trend; however, a sustained break below this level would indicate a potential deepening of the correction and a weakening of the existing trend.
- Key support zone: $1.20 to $1.30
- Medium-term target: $3.87
- Longer-term projection target: approximately US$17.50
The weekly RSI has fallen below 30.
According to CoinCodex data, XRP is currently trading at $1.12, having fallen by approximately 15% over the past week. This means the price has entered or is approaching the aforementioned key support zone, and its subsequent performance will directly impact market expectations for the medium-term trend.
Another analyst, Evan Clegg, focused on momentum indicators. He pointed out that XRP's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30, which is generally considered to be in oversold territory.
The report argues that what's more noteworthy is that this signal is uncommon over longer periods. According to the report, XRP has only shown similar weekly oversold levels in very rare cases, with the last instance corresponding to a significant cyclical low.
The rebound expectation still needs to be verified.
Based on this observation, Clegg believes that downward momentum may be weakening, rather than selling pressure continuing to increase. He views the current phase as the latter part of a correction and, combining this with Elliott Wave Theory, believes the market may still be in a consolidation phase before a larger upward move.
Regarding target levels, the report mentions that Kucuker considers $3.87 as a medium-term reference point, while Clegg gives a potential upside target of $4.47. Other longer-term cycle models extend the target to approximately $17.50, but this projection is based on longer-term Fibonacci extensions and historical price movements, and is not a short-term conclusion.
Overall, this opinion piece does not consider the rebound a confirmed fact. The more important question now is whether the price can find support near key support levels. If the $1.20 to $1.30 range is breached, the market's assessment of the long-term breakout structure may need to be readjusted; if it holds, expectations for a rebound in XRP are likely to continue to rise.
