Foreign media commentators have noted that while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is currently primarily viewed as an energy shock, its lagging impact on the agricultural supply chain is more easily underestimated. The article argues that if the transport of fertilizers and key raw materials remains disrupted, the impact will spread from shipping and oil prices to planting, yields, and food prices.

Fertilizer transportation is more difficult to delay

The article points out that the Persian Gulf is not only a crude oil transportation route, but also an important hub for the distribution of fertilizers and raw materials such as urea, ammonia, sulfur, and phosphorus. These products may not receive as much attention as crude oil, but they are directly related to modern agricultural output.

Unlike some energy freight shipments which can be diverted, fertilizer application has a specific time window. If farmers miss the planting or fertilization season, the impact is usually not immediately apparent, but will manifest as reduced yields of wheat, rice, and corn in the next harvest.

Price pressures have emerged.

The article cites a warning from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than 90 days, the global agricultural and food system could suffer a systemic shock within the next 6 to 12 months, triggering a severe food price crisis.

Commentators say early signs are already emerging. Urea prices in Kentucky, USA, have reportedly risen by 55%, and fertilizer affordability has fallen to its lowest level since the Arab Spring. For economies reliant on imports, farmers have begun to reassess fertilizer application rates, planting structures, and cost affordability.

The impact will spread along the supply chain.

The article argues that the problem extends beyond the transportation of finished fertilizer products. The Persian Gulf is also a crucial raw material route for maintaining global fertilizer production. Sulfur is essential for phosphate fertilizer production, natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer production, and ammonia permeates multiple fertilizer systems.

If the transport of these raw materials is disrupted, the impact will spread from the strait to factories, traders, distributors, cooperatives, and farms, affecting multiple continents. Therefore, the article argues that relevant trade flows should be restored as soon as possible, and that clearer passage guarantees should be provided for ships transporting fertilizers and key raw materials.

The author also opposes export restrictions imposed by countries during food shocks, arguing that such measures would not increase fertilizer or food supply but would instead exacerbate market tensions and drive up prices. The article concludes by stating that while the debate continues about whether the crisis is merely a short-term disruption, farmers are already making decisions about the next harvest.